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The data drawn from biological, economic, and social systems are often confounded due to the presence of unmeasured variables. Prior work in causal discovery has focused on discrete search procedures for selecting acyclic directed mixed…

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models that are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models…

Generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs) are widely used to analyze grouped and hierarchical data. In a GLMM, each response is assumed to follow an exponential-family distribution where the natural parameter is given by a linear…

This paper describes a model for generating time series which exhibit the statistical phenomenon known as long-range dependence (LRD). A Markov Modulated Process based upon an infinite Markov chain is described. The work described is…

Graphical models with heavy-tailed factors can be used to model extremal dependence or causality between extreme events. In a Bayesian network, variables are recursively defined in terms of their parents according to a directed acyclic…

Probabilistic inference in graphical models is the task of computing marginal and conditional densities of interest from a factorized representation of a joint probability distribution. Inference algorithms such as variable elimination and…

We show that, for generative classifiers, conditional independence corresponds to linear constraints for the induced discrimination functions. Discrimination functions of undirected Markov network classifiers can thus be characterized by…

Models of dynamical systems based on predictive state representations (PSRs) are defined strictly in terms of observable quantities, in contrast with traditional models (such as Hidden Markov Models) that use latent variables or statespace…

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are probabilistic models for repulsion. When used to represent the occurrence of random subsets of a finite base set, DPPs allow to model global negative associations in a mathematically elegant and…

Building accurate and interpretable Machine Learning (ML) models for heterogeneous/mixed data is a long-standing challenge for algorithms designed for numeric data. This work focuses on developing numeric coding schemes for non-numeric…

A new method for analyzing high-dimensional categorical data, Linear Latent Structure (LLS) analysis, is presented. LLS models belong to the family of latent structure models, which are mixture distribution models constrained to satisfy the…

We propose a novel and fully data driven control scheme which relies on machine learning (ML). Exploiting recently developed ML-based prediction capabilities of complex systems, we demonstrate that nonlinear systems can be forced to stay in…

The Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle selects the model that has the shortest code for data plus model. We show that for a countable class of models, MDL predictions are close to the true distribution in a strong sense. The result…

We study mixed models with a single grouping factor, where inference about unknown parameters requires optimizing a marginal likelihood defined by an intractable integral. Low-dimensional numerical integration techniques are regularly used…

Markov Games (MG) is an important model for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). It was long believed that the "curse of multi-agents" (i.e., the algorithmic performance drops exponentially with the number of agents) is unavoidable…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been used quite effectively in the modeling of a mean response under nonstandard conditions, where discrete as well as continuous data distributions can be accommodated. The choice of design for a GLM…

A regime-switching multivariate time series model which is closed under margins is built. The model imposes a restriction on all lower-dimensional sub-processes to follow a regime-switching process sharing the same latent regime sequence…

Parametric Markov chains (pMCs) are Markov chains (MCs) with symbolic probabilities. A pMC encodes a family of MCs, where each member is obtained by replacing parameters with constants. The parameters allow encoding dependencies between…

In this paper, we explore a general Aggregated Gradient Langevin Dynamics framework (AGLD) for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We investigate the nonasymptotic convergence of AGLD with a unified analysis for different data…

We study the task of conducting structured reasoning as generating a reasoning graph from natural language input using large language models (LLMs). Previous approaches have explored various prompting schemes, yet they suffer from error…