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We study the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution in a broad class of statistical models where the "true" solution occurs on the boundary of the parameter space. We show that in this case Bayesian inference is consistent, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Natalia A. Bochkina , Peter J. Green

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Edwin Fong , Andrew Yiu

Given a sample from a discretely observed multidimensional compound Poisson process, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of its jump size density $r_0$ and intensity $\lambda_0$. We take a nonparametric Bayesian approach to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-08 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We study high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with product priors. Using the nascent theory of non-linear large deviations (Chatterjee and Dembo,2016), we derive sufficient conditions for the leading-order correctness of the naive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-27 Sumit Mukherjee , Subhabrata Sen

This paper deals with the parametric inference for integrated signals embedded in an additive Gaussian noise and observed at deterministic discrete instants which are not necessarily equidistant. The unknown parameter is multidimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-18 Dominique Dehay , Khalil El Waled , Vincent Monsan

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

The classical condition on the existence of uniformly exponentially consistent tests for testing the true density against the complement of its arbitrary neighborhood has been widely adopted in study of asymptotics of Bayesian nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-01 Yang Xing

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tomoya Wakayama

In an indirect Gaussian sequence space model lower and upper bounds are derived for the concentration rate of the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest shrinking to the parameter value $\theta^\circ$ that generates the data.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-03 Jan Johannes , Anna Simoni , Rudolf Schenk

For ill-posed inverse problems, a regularised solution can be interpreted as a mode of the posterior distribution in a Bayesian framework. This framework enriches the set the solutions, as other posterior estimates can be used as a solution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-22 Natalia Bochkina

I propose a semiparametric Bayesian inference framework for conditional moment equalities. The core idea is that these models deterministically map a conditional distribution of data to a structural parameter via the restriction that a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-19 Christopher D. Walker

This work is concerned with nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing in the context of nonlinear inverse problems with random observations. Bayesian posterior distributions based upon a Gaussian process prior distribution are proven to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Remo Kretschmann , Han Cheng Lie

Single-index models or time-to-event models are frequently applied in empirical research. These models are non-identifiable in presence of unknown (dependent) censoring or competing risks and do not give informative results in empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Jia-Han Shih , Simon M. S. Lo , Ralf A. Wilke

Topic models are Bayesian models that are frequently used to capture the latent structure of certain corpora of documents or images. Each data element in such a corpus (for instance each item in a collection of scientific articles) is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-05 Behrooz Ghorbani , Hamid Javadi , Andrea Montanari

The Weibull distribution is one of the most used tools in reliability analysis. In this paper, assuming a Bayesian approach, we propose necessary and sufficient conditions to verify when improper priors lead to proper posteriors for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Eduardo Ramos , Pedro L. Ramos

We introduce a density basis of the trigonometric polynomials that is suitable to mixture modelling. Statistical and geometric properties are derived, suggesting it as a circular analogue to the Bernstein polynomial densities. Nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-26 Olivier Binette , Simon Guillotte

We consider non-parametric estimation and inference of conditional moment models in high dimensions. We show that even when the dimension $D$ of the conditioning variable is larger than the sample size $n$, estimation and inference is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-19 Khashayar Khosravi , Greg Lewis , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale inference, yet most classical approaches assume homoscedastic observations and focus primarily on posterior mean estimation. We develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zhigen Zhao , Shonosuke Sugaasawa

Given a sample of a Poisson point process with intensity $\lambda_f(x,y) = n \mathbf{1}(f(x) \leq y),$ we study recovery of the boundary function $f$ from a nonparametric Bayes perspective. Because of the irregularity of this model, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-15 Markus Reiss , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Aad van der Vaart , Harry van Zanten