Related papers: Stochastic Price Dynamics Implied By the Limit Ord…
We exploit cutting-edge deep learning methodologies to explore the predictability of high-frequency Limit Order Book mid-price changes for a heterogeneous set of stocks traded on the NASDAQ exchange. In so doing, we release `LOBFrame', an…
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the…
We propose a framework for studying optimal market making policies in a limit order book (LOB). The bid-ask spread of the LOB is modelled by a Markov chain with finite values, multiple of the tick size, and subordinated by the Poisson…
Financial markets can be described on several time scales. We use data from the limit order book of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to compare how the fluctuation dominated microstructure crosses over to a more systematic global behavior.
Price gap, defined as the logarithmic price difference between the first two occupied price levels on the same side of a limit order book (LOB), is a key determinant of market depth, which is one of the dimensions of liquidity. However, the…
A key assumption in most existing works on FL algorithms' convergence analysis is that the noise in stochastic first-order information has a finite variance. Although this assumption covers all light-tailed (i.e., sub-exponential) and some…
Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated…
Although behavioral economics has demonstrated that there are many situations where rational choice is a poor empirical model, it has so far failed to provide quantitative models of economic problems such as price formation. We make a step…
In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of…
We present a new microscopic stochastic model for an ensemble of interacting investors that buy and sell stocks in discrete time steps via limit orders based on individual forecasts about the price of the stock. These orders determine the…
We consider a class of multiplicative processes which, added with stochastic reset events, give origin to stationary distributions with power-law tails -- ubiquitous in the statistics of social, economic, and ecological systems. Our main…
It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the…
One of the key decisions in execution strategies is the choice between a passive (liquidity providing) or an aggressive (liquidity taking) order to execute a trade in a limit order book (LOB). Essential to this choice is the fill…
In this chapter we review some recent results on the dynamics of price formation in financial markets and its relations with the efficient market hypothesis. Specifically, we present the limit order book mechanism for markets and we…
In equity and foreign exchange markets the risk-neutral dynamics of the underlying asset are commonly represented by stochastic volatility models with jumps. In this paper we consider a dense subclass of such models and develop analytically…
In the present work we introduce a novel multi-agent model with the aim to reproduce the dynamics of a double auction market at microscopic time scale through a faithful simulation of the matching mechanics in the limit order book. The…
We describe a bottom-up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We…
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential,…
We take inspiration from statistical physics to develop a novel conceptual framework for the analysis of financial markets. We model the order book dynamics as a motion of particles and define the momentum measure of the system as a way to…
We provide a full characterisation of the large-maturity forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model. Although the leading decay is provided by a fairly classical large deviations behaviour, the algebraic expansion providing the…