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The paper proposes a systematic framework for building data-driven stochastic differential equation (SDE) models from sparse, noisy observations. Unlike traditional parametric approaches, which assume a known functional form for the drift,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Arnab Ganguly , Riten Mitra , Jinpu Zhou

This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-22 P. Choppala , D. Gunawan , J. Chen , M. -N. Tran , R. Kohn

In the present work, we investigate the dynamics of the infinite-dimensional stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with multiplicative white noise. We derive the effective equation on the approximate slow manifold in detail by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-05-08 Shenglan Yuan , Dirk Blömker

Stochastic models with fractional Brownian motion as source of randomness have become popular since the early 2000s. Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is a Gaussian process, whose covariance depends on the so-called Hurst parameter $H\in…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-22 Anna P. Kwossek , Andreas Neuenkirch , David J. Prömel

We consider a class of one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic parabolic problems associated with Sellers and Budyko diffusive energy balance climate models with a Legendre weighted diffusion and an additive cylindrical Wiener processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-23 Gregorio Díaz , Jesús Ildefonso Díaz

The paper is concerned with a dissipativity theory and robust performance analysis of discrete-time stochastic systems driven by a statistically uncertain random noise. The uncertainty is quantified by the conditional relative entropy of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-08-21 Igor G. Vladimirov , Ian R. Petersen

We address the problem of estimating unknown model parameters and state variables in stochastic reaction processes when only sparse and noisy measurements are available. Using an asymptotic system size expansion for the backward equation we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-07-02 Andreas Ruttor , Manfred Opper

There is a history of simple forecast error growth models designed to capture the key properties of error growth in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. We propose here such a scalar model that relies on the previous ones…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-02 Eviatar Bach , Dan Crisan , Michael Ghil

A paradigm for isothermal, mechanical rectification of stochastic fluctuations is introduced in this paper. The central idea is to transform energy injected by random perturbations into rigid-body rotational kinetic energy. The prototype…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-10-18 Nawaf Bou-Rabee , Houman Owhadi

State-of-the-art Model Predictive Control (MPC) applications for building heating adopt either a deterministic controller together with a nonlinear model or a linearized model with a stochastic MPC controller. However, deterministic MPC…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-01 Tomas Pippia , Jesus Lago , Roel De Coninck , Bart De Schutter

We identify an issue in recent approaches to learning-based control that reformulate systems with uncertain dynamics using a stochastic differential equation. Specifically, we discuss the approximation that replaces a model with fixed but…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-12 Thomas Lew , Apoorva Sharma , James Harrison , Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

In this paper, we study a stochastic parabolic problem involving a nonlocal diffusion operator associated with nonlocal Robin-type boundary conditions. The stochastic dynamics under consideration are driven by a mixture of a classical…

We present a numerical method for learning unknown nonautonomous stochastic dynamical system, i.e., stochastic system subject to time dependent excitation or control signals. Our basic assumption is that the governing equations for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yuan Chen , Dongbin Xiu

This study develops and analyzes a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. While deterministic frameworks have yielded important insights into viral behavior, they cannot…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-10-03 Abdallah Alsammani

This article sets up a formalism to describe stochastic thermodynamics for driven out-of-equilibrium open quantum systems. A stochastic Schr\"odinger equation allows to construct quantum trajectories describing the dynamics of the system…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-10-17 Cyril Elouard , Alexia Auffèves , Maxime Clusel

Stochastic dynamics in the energy representation is employed as a method to study non-equilibrium Brownian-like systems. It is shown that the equation of motion for the energy of such systems can be taken in the form of the Langevin…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-18 Bohdan I. Lev , Alexei D. Kiselev

The stochastic model that describes radiative heat transfer in dielectric medium is built. The model is based on the representation that heat transfer is realized both by heat conductivity mechanism in it and due to the electromagnetic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-20 Yuri Petrovich Virchenko , Lam Tan Phat

We investigate the problem of joint statistical estimation of several parameters for a stochastic differential equation driven by an additive fractional Brownian motion. Based on discrete-time observations of the model, we construct an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-10 El Mehdi Haress , Alexandre Richard

In the present paper, we studied a Dynamic Stochastic Block Model (DSBM) under the assumptions that the connection probabilities, as functions of time, are smooth and that at most $s$ nodes can switch their class memberships between two…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-04 Marianna Pensky , Teng Zhang