Related papers: Unbiased risk estimation and scoring rules

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

We propose a Stein characterization of the Kummer distribution on (0, $\infty$). This result follows from our observation that the density of the Kummer distribution satisfies a certain differential equation, leading to a solution of the…

In this article we consider the estimation of static parameters for partially observed diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, when one only has access to time-discretized solutions of…

We obtain a Stein characterisation of the distribution of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means, and more generally the distribution of the sum of independent copies of such random variables. Our Stein…

Stein's method (Stein, 1973; 1981) is a powerful tool for statistical applications and has significantly impacted machine learning. Stein's lemma plays an essential role in Stein's method. Previous applications of Stein's lemma either…

Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to…

The radiological characterization of contaminated elements (walls, grounds, objects) from nuclear facilities often suffers from a too small number of measurements. In order to determine risk prediction bounds on the level of contamination,…

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current…

We present a new method for evaluating and training unnormalized density models. Our approach only requires access to the gradient of the unnormalized model's log-density. We estimate the Stein discrepancy between the data density $p(x)$…

We establish normal approximation in the Wasserstein metric for both non-degenerate and degenerate second-order U-statistics under cross-sectional dependence using Stein's method. For the non-degenerate case, our results extend recent…

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

We consider the development of unbiased estimators, to approximate the stationary distribution of Mckean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs). These are an important class of processes, which frequently appear in applications…

Let $B=(B_t)_{t\in {\mathbb{R}}}$ be a two-sided standard Brownian motion. An unbiased shift of $B$ is a random time $T$, which is a measurable function of $B$, such that $(B_{T+t}-B_T)_{t\in {\mathbb{R}}}$ is a Brownian motion independent…

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

Standard practice obtains an unbiased variance estimator by dividing by $N-1$ rather than $N$. Yet if only half the data are used to compute the mean, dividing by $N$ can still yield an unbiased estimator. We show that an alternative mean…

Stein's method is used to approximate sums of discrete and locally dependent random variables by a centered and symmetric Binomial distribution. Under appropriate smoothness properties of the summands, the same order of accuracy as in the…

Managers, employers, policymakers, and others often seek to understand whether decisions are biased against certain groups. One popular analytic strategy is to estimate disparities after adjusting for observed covariates, typically with a…

Randomising networks using a naive `accept-all' edge-swap algorithm is generally biased. Building on recent results for nondirected graphs, we construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities for…

Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and…

Debiasing group graphical lasso estimates enables statistical inference when multiple Gaussian graphical models share a common sparsity pattern. We analyze the estimation properties of group graphical lasso, establishing convergence rates…