English
Related papers

Related papers: Unbiased risk estimation and scoring rules

200 papers

We combine the unbiased estimators in Rhee and Glynn (Operations Research: 63(5), 1026-1043, 2015) and the Heston model with stochastic interest rates. Specifically, we first develop a semi-exact log-Euler scheme for the Heston model with…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-14 Chao Zheng , Jiangtao Pan

Policy gradient methods are very attractive in reinforcement learning due to their model-free nature and convergence guarantees. These methods, however, suffer from high variance in gradient estimation, resulting in poor sample efficiency.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-16 Sergey Pankov

We propose a general approach to characterize states of a bipartite system composed by a fully controllable and an unaccessible subsystems. The method is based on the measuring interference between states of the uncontrollable subsystem…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-17 Isabel Sainz , Juan J. Díaz , Andrei B. Klimov

The problem of estimating a mean matrix of a multivariate complex normal distribution with an unknown covariance matrix is considered under an invariant loss function. By using complex versions of the Stein identity, the Stein-Haff…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-11 Yoshihiko Konno

The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-03 Anne-Laure Fougères , Laurens de Haan , Cécile Mercadier

Method of parameterizing and smoothing the unknown underling distributions using Bernstein polynomials is proposed, verified and investigated. Any distribution with bounded and smooth enough density can be approximated by the proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-23 Zhong Guan

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

We examine theoretical properties of the denoising score matching estimate. We model the density of observations with a nonparametric Gaussian mixture. We significantly relax the standard manifold assumption allowing the samples step away…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Konstantin Yakovlev , Nikita Puchkin

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Yusuf Sale , Viktor Bengs , Michele Caprio , Eyke Hüllermeier

We provide new convergence guarantees in Wasserstein distance for diffusion-based generative models, covering both stochastic (DDPM-like) and deterministic (DDIM-like) sampling methods. We introduce a simple framework to analyze…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Eliot Beyler , Francis Bach

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

Approximate numerical methods are one of the most used strategies to extract information from many-interacting-agents systems. In particular, numerical approximations are of extended use to deal with epidemic, ecological and biological…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-08-27 Javier Aguilar , Jose J. Ramasco , Raúl Toral

This paper discusses the properties of certain risk estimators recently proposed to choose regularization parameters in ill-posed problems. A simple approach is Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE), which estimates the risk in the data…

The concept of biased data is well known and its practical applications range from social sciences and biology to economics and quality control. These observations arise when a sampling procedure chooses an observation with probability that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Sam Efromovich

This paper provides a general framework for Stein's density method for multivariate continuous distributions. The approach associates to any probability density function a canonical operator and Stein class, as well as an infinite…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-27 Guillaume Mijoule , Martin Raič , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

A Two-Stage approach enables researchers to make optimal non-linear predictions via Generalized Ridge Regression using models that contain two or more x-predictor variables and make only realistic minimal assumptions. The optimal regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Robert L. Obenchain

We study the accuracy of a scaled Poisson approximation to the weighted sum of independent Poisson random variables, focusing on in particular the relative error of the tail distribution. A bound on the relative approximation error is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-18 Yue Tan , Yingdong Lu , Cathy Xia

We consider the problem of estimating covariance and precision matrices, and their associated discriminant coefficients, from normal data when the rank of the covariance matrix is strictly smaller than its dimension and the available sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-09 Didier Chételat , Martin T. Wells

A crucial task in predictive maintenance is estimating the remaining useful life of physical systems. In the last decade, deep learning has improved considerably upon traditional model-based and statistical approaches in terms of predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Luca Della Libera , Jacopo Andreoli , Davide Dalle Pezze , Mirco Ravanelli , Gian Antonio Susto

An unbinned statistical test on cluster-like deviations from Poisson processes for point process data is introduced, presented in the context of time variability analysis of astrophysical sources in count rate experiments. The measure of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Juergen Prahl
‹ Prev 1 8 9 10 Next ›