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Related papers: A Functional Version of the ARCH Model

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During the last decades there has been increasing interest in modeling the volatility of financial data. Several parametric models have been proposed to this aim, starting from ARCH, GARCH and their variants, but often it is hard to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-28 Francesco Giordano , Maria Lucia Parrella

In this paper, we study a functional SAR model in which explanatory variables are sampling points of a continuous-time process. We propose a procedure for the maximum likelihood estimation for the spatial parameter dependence and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-14 Wilmer Pineda-Ríos , Ramón Giraldo

We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-07 Ilya Archakov , Peter Reinhard Hansen , Asger Lunde

In the last few decades, building regression models for non-scalar variables, including time series, text, image, and video, has attracted increasing interests of researchers from the data analytic community. In this paper, we focus on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Qiyao Wang , Haiyan Wang , Chetan Gupta , Aniruddha Rajendra Rao , Hamed Khorasgani

Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other applications in finance. It is well-known that financial time series display conditional heteroscedasticity. Among the large number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Yao Zheng , Qianqian Zhu , Guodong Li , Zhijie Xiao

This article presents an Analysis of Variance model for functional data that explicitly incorporates phase variability through a time-warping component, allowing for a unified approach to estimation and inference in presence of amplitude…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-11 Daniel Gervini , Patrick A. Carter

Here, we address the problem of trend estimation for functional time series. Existing contributions either deal with detecting a functional trend or assuming a simple model. They consider neither the estimation of a general functional trend…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Israel Martínez-Hernández , Marc G. Genton

For a GJR-GARCH specification with a generic innovation distribution we derive analytic expressions for the first four conditional moments of the forward and aggregated returns and variances. Moment for the most commonly used GARCH models…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-09-07 Carol Alexander , Emese Lazar , Silvia Stanescu

This article proposes methods to model nonstationary temporal graph processes. This corresponds to modelling the observation of edge variables (relationships between objects) indicating interactions between pairs of nodes (or objects)…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-07 Maria Suveges , Sofia C. Olhede

Financial institutions obtain enormous amounts of data about user transactions and money transfers, which can be considered as a large graph dynamically changing in time. In this work, we focus on the task of predicting new interactions in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-24 Valentina Shumovskaia , Kirill Fedyanin , Ivan Sukharev , Dmitry Berestnev , Maxim Panov

In this paper, a new approach to bivariate modeling of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models is proposed. Specifically, we consider the joint modeling of durations and the number of transactions made during the spell. The…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-27 Helton Saulo , Suvra Pal , Roberto Vila

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Fabian Mies

Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Gilles Zumbach , Paul Lynch

The autocorrelation function of volatility in financial time series is fitted well by a superposition of several exponents. Such a case admits an explicit analytical solution of the problem of constructing the best linear forecast of a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 M. I. Krivoruchenko

Aggregation of large databases in a specific format is a frequently used process to make the data easily manageable. Interval-valued data is one of the data types that is generated by such an aggregation process. Using traditional methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-09 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang , Abdel-Salam G. Abdel-Salam

Non-stationary extremal dependence, whereby the relationship between the extremes of multiple variables evolves over time, is commonly observed in many environmental and financial data sets. However, most multivariate extreme value models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , M. de Carvalho , B. D. Youngman

In this paper I provide simple and easily verifiable conditions under which a strong form of stochastic equicontinuity holds in a wide variety of modern time series models. In contrast to most results currently available in the literature,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-20 Andreas Hagemann

Archetype and archetypoid analysis can be extended to functional data. Each function is represented as a mixture of actual observations (functional archetypoids) or functional archetypes, which are a mixture of observations in the data set.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-02 Irene Epifanio

The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-14 Menelaos Karanasos , Alexandros Paraskevopoulos , Stavros Dafnos

In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Philipp Otto , Wolfgang Schmid