Related papers: A win-win monetary policy in Canada
In this work, we examine cosmological constraints on models of composite inflation based on the slow-roll approximation by using the recent Planck measurement. We compare the spectral index of curvature perturbation (and its running) and…
It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates.…
Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…
Understanding when inflationary perturbations become genuinely nonlinear near the horizon crossing requires methods that go beyond both linear perturbation theory and the gradient expansion. In this work, we introduce a nonlinear lattice…
We analyze the problem of optimal reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio in a stochastic control setting. The debt-to-GDP dynamics are modeled through a stochastic differential equation in which fiscal policy simultaneously affects both debt…
Non-Gaussianity in the distribution of inflationary perturbations, measurable in statistics of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large scale structure fluctuations, can be used to probe non-trivial initial quantum states for these…
Assuming that inflation happened through a series of tunneling in the string theory landscape, it is argued that one can determine the structure of vacua using precise measurements of the scalar spectral index and tensor perturbations at…
We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…
The conventional linear Phillips curve model, while widely used in policymaking, often struggles to deliver accurate forecasts in the presence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities. This paper addresses these limitations by…
We present Luce, the first life-long predictive model for automated property valuation. Luce addresses two critical issues of property valuation: the lack of recent sold prices and the sparsity of house data. It is designed to operate on a…
Changepoints are essential for homogenizing categorical time series and analyzing their trends and variations. The original total cloud cover in Canada was recorded hourly in tenths (or eighths), exhibiting inherent seasonality and serial…
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…
Periodic operation often emerges as the economically optimal mode in industrial processes, particularly under varying economic or environmental conditions. This paper proposes a robust model predictive control (MPC) framework for uncertain…
This White Paper for the CNRS IN2P3 Prospective 2020 focuses on realistic and timely situations of inflation in connection with the CMB, gravitational and particle physics, adding inter-disciplinarity and unification values within a…
This article proposes a spatial dynamic structural equation model for the analysis of housing prices at the State level in the USA. The study contributes to the existing literature by extending the use of dynamic factor models to the…
Water markets represent a policy tool that aims at finding efficient water allocations among competing users by promoting reallocations from low-value to high-value uses. In Canada, water markets have been discussed and implemented at the…
Inflation is one of the most important economic indicators closely watched by both public institutions and private agents. This study compares the performance of a traditional econometric model, Mixed Data Sampling regression, with one of…
Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they comprise many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns.…
Inflation is part of the Standard Model of the Universe supported by CMB and large scale structure LSS datasets. This review presents new developments of inflation in three main chapters. (I): The effective theory of inflation a la…
A structural Gaussian mixture vector autoregressive model is introduced. The shocks are identified by combining simultaneous diagonalization of the reduced form error covariance matrices with constraints on the time-varying impact matrix.…