Related papers: A win-win monetary policy in Canada
We study online changepoint detection in the context of a linear regression model. We propose a class of heavily weighted statistics based on the CUSUM process of the regression residuals, which are specifically designed to ensure timely…
Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…
Recent results from cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments verify several of the predictions of inflation, while ruling out a number of alternative structure-formation scenarios. Given the successes of the theory, the obvious next…
The large hierarchy between the Planck scale and the weak scale can be explained by the dynamical breaking of supersymmetry in strongly coupled gauge theories. Similarly, the hierarchy between the Planck scale and the energy scale of…
The lead-lag relationship plays a vital role in financial markets. It is the phenomenon where a certain price-series lags behind and partially replicates the movement of leading time-series. The present research proposes a new technique…
A causal structure is a description of the functional dependencies between random variables. A distribution is compatible with a given causal structure if it can be realized by a process respecting these dependencies. Deciding whether a…
This paper presents a novel quantitative approach for comparative economic studies, addressing limitations in current classification methods. Conventional approaches in comparative economics often rely on ad hoc and categorical…
This paper addresses the open problem of conducting change-point analysis for interval-valued time series data using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework. Motivated by financial time series, we analyze data that includes daily…
The complexity and ambiguity of financial and economic systems, along with frequent changes in the economic environment, have made it difficult to make precise predictions that are supported by theory-consistent explanations. Interpreting…
In this paper we provide evidence that financial option markets for equity indices give rise to non-trivial dependency structures between its constituents. Thus, if the individual constituent distributions of an equity index are inferred…
The aim of this paper is to highlight the challenges and potential gains surrounding a coherent description of physics from the high-energy scales of inflation down to the lower energy scales probed in particle-physics experiments. As an…
The broad objective of this paper is to propose a mathematical model for the study of causes of wage inequality and relate it to choices of consumption, the technologies of production, and the composition of labor in an economy. The paper…
We review the connection between inflationary models and observations and concentrate to describe models based on softly broken supersymmetry, in particular running mass models, and their predictions. We then present a fit of the spectral…
We construct supersymmetric unified models which automatically lead to a period of inflation. The models all involve a U(1) symmetry which does not belong to the MSSM. We consider three different types of models depending on whether this…
We propose a formulation to construct new classes of financial price processes based on the insight that the key variable driving prices $P$ is the earning-over-price ratio $\gamma \simeq 1/P$, which we refer to as the earning yield and is…
We propose a sequential monitoring scheme to find structural breaks in real estate markets. The changes in the real estate prices are modeled by a combination of linear and autoregressive terms. The monitoring scheme is based on a detector…
Strong mixing property holds for a broad class of linear and nonlinear time series models such as ARMA and GARCH models. In this article we study correlation structure of strong mixing sequences, and some asymptotic properties are…
In this paper, we investigate a semiparametric regression model under the context of treatment effects via a localized neural network (LNN) approach. Due to a vast number of parameters involved, we reduce the number of effective parameters…
A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the…
Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on people's well-being and…