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The risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for both the authorities and the insurance industry. This paper concerns risk measures in a spatial setting, in order to introduce the spatial features of damages stemming from…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Erwan Koch

Estimation of reliability and hazard rate is one of the most important problems raised in many applications especially in engineering studies as well as human lifetime. In this regard, different methods of estimation have been used. Each…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-27 Hassan Piriaeia , Omid Shojaee

We present a framework for constructing multivariate risk measures that is inspired from univariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk measures. We show that this new class of risk measures verifies the desirable properties such as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-07 Sarah Kaakai , Anis Matoussi , Achraf Tamtalini

We discuss two distinct approaches, for distorting risk measures of sums of dependent random variables, which preserve the property of coherence. The first, based on distorted expectations, operates on the survival function of the sum. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-17 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir

We study Spectral Measures of Risk from the perspective of portfolio optimization. We derive exact results which extend to general Spectral Measures M_phi the Pflug--Rockafellar--Uryasev methodology for the minimization of alpha--Expected…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Acerbi Carlo , Simonetti Prospero

The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-16 Ronnie Sircar , Stephan Sturm

Suppose the expectation $E(F(X))$ is to be estimated by the empirical averages of the values of $F$ on independent and identically distributed samples $\{X_i\}$. A sampling rule called the "screened" estimator is introduced, and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Sean P. Meyn

The investor is interested in the expected return and he is also concerned about the risk and the uncertainty assumed by the investment. One of the most popular concepts used to measure the risk and the uncertainty is the variance and/or…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Andreia Dionisio , Rui Menezes , Diana A. Mendes

In this paper, we consider a situation where a decision maker's (DM's) risk preference can be described by a spectral risk measure (SRM) but there is not a single SRM which can be used to represent the DM's preferences consistently.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Manlan Li , Xiaojiao Tong , Huifu Xu

We establish a profound connection between coherent risk measures, a prominent object in quantitative finance, and uniform integrability, a fundamental concept in probability theory. Instead of working with absolute values of random…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-08 Muqiao Huang , Ruodu Wang

The processes of the averaged regression quantiles and of their modifications provide useful tools in the regression models when the covariates are not fully under our control. As an application we mention the probabilistic risk assessment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-19 Jana Jurečková , Martin Schindler , Jan Picek

The Expected Shortfall (ES) is one of the most important regulatory risk measures in finance, insurance, and statistics, which has recently been characterized via sets of axioms from perspectives of portfolio risk management and statistics.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-09-09 Qiuqi Wang , Ruodu Wang , Ricardas Zitikis

Considering the problem of risk-sensitive parameter estimation, we propose a fairly wide family of lower bounds on the exponential moments of the quadratic error, both in the Bayesian and the non--Bayesian regime. This family of bounds,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-03-02 Neri Merhav

In this paper, we explore spectral measures whose square integrable spaces admit a family of exponential functions as an orthonormal basis.Our approach involves utilizing the integral periodic zeros set of Fourier transform to characterize…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Wenxia Li , Jun Jie Miao , Zhiqiang Wang

Under general multivariate regular variation conditions, the extreme Value-at-Risk of a portfolio can be expressed as an integral of a known kernel with respect to a generally unknown spectral measure supported on the unit simplex. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-09 Robert Yuen , Stilian Stoev , Dan Cooley

This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-30 John Cotter , Kevin Dowd

Risk-sensitive planning aims to identify policies maximizing some tail-focused metrics in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Such an optimization task can be very costly for the most widely used and interpretable metrics such as threshold…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-09 Alexandre Marthe , Samuel Bounan , Aurélien Garivier , Claire Vernade

In an increasing number of applications, it is of interest to recover an approximately low-rank data matrix from noisy observations. This paper develops an unbiased risk estimate---holding in a Gaussian model---for any spectral estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Emmanuel J. Candes , Carlos A. Sing-Long , Joshua D. Trzasko

In this paper, we develop an approach to recursively estimate the quadratic risk for matrix recovery problems regularized with spectral functions. Toward this end, in the spirit of the SURE theory, a key step is to compute the (weak)…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-11-07 Charles-Alban Deledalle , Samuel Vaiter , Gabriel Peyré , Jalal Fadili , Charles Dossal

This survey gives an introduction to monetary measures of risk as monotone and cash additive functions on spaces of univariate random variables. Primal and dual representation results as well as several examples are discussed. Principal…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-12 Andreas H Hamel