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Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-08-27 Kanako Mizuno , Kazue Kudo

We apply optimal control theory to a generalized SEIR-type model. The proposed system has three controls, representing social distancing, preventive means, and treatment measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-10 Mohamed Abdelaziz Zaitri , Mohand Ouamer Bibi , Delfim F. M. Torres

When the body gets infected by a pathogen or receives a vaccine dose, the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery/vaccination the host might become susceptible again.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-01-15 Maria Vittoria Barbarossa , Gergely Röst

The problem of targeted network immunization can be defined as the one of finding a subset of nodes in a network to immunize or vaccinate in order to minimize a tradeoff between the cost of vaccination and the final (stationary) expected…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-07-10 F. Altarelli , A. Braunstein , L. Dall'Asta , J. R. Wakeling , R. Zecchina

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Martina Alutto , Giacomo Como , Fabio Fagnani

In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: $i)…

We study the susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly subject to having given vertex degrees. In this model infective vertices infect each of their susceptible neighbours, and recover, at a constant…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-24 Svante Janson , Malwina Luczak , Peter Windridge

We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-26 Abid Ali Lashari , Ana Serafimović , Pieter Trapman

We revisit here a landmark five parameter SIR-type model of [DvdD93, Sec. 4], which is maybe the simplest example where a complete picture of all cases, including non-trivial bistability behavior, may be obtained using simple tools. We also…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-11 Florin Avram , Rim Adenane , Gianluca Bianchin , Andrei Halanay

In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-16 Semra Gunduc

We analyse the global dynamics of a Susceptible--Vaccinated--Exposed--Infected--Recovered (SVEIR) epidemic model with demographic turnover, imperfect vaccination, and two transmission routes: direct host-to-host contagion and indirect…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Emanuela Penitente , Urszula Foryś , Burcu Gürbüz

The SIR pandemic model suffers from an unrealistic assumption: The rate of removal from the infectious class of individuals is assumed to be proportional to the number of infectious individuals. This means that a change in the rate of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-23 Paul A. Reiser

In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-04 Miguel Navascues , Costantino Budroni , Yelena Guryanova

Metapopulation epidemic models describe epidemic dynamics in networks of spatially distant patches connected with pathways for migration of individuals. In the present study, we deal with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-08-22 Akari Matsuki , Gouhei Tanaka

We consider the $SEIRS$ epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. Within a compartmental realization of this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-07 Jaroslav Ilnytskyi , Taras Patsahan

The Markovian approach, which assumes exponentially distributed interinfection times, is dominant in epidemic modeling. However, this assumption is unrealistic as an individual's infectiousness depends on its viral load and varies over…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-02 Qihui Yang , Joan Saldaña , Caterina Scoglio

This paper revisits a longstanding problem of interest concerning the distributed control of an epidemic process on human contact networks. Due to the stochastic nature and combinatorial complexity of the problem, finding optimal policies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-12 Mohammad Mubarak , Cameron Nowzari

As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-08-20 José L. Herrera , Lauren Ancel Meyers

With the invention of the COVID-19 vaccine, shipping and distributing are crucial in controlling the pandemic. In this paper, we build a mean-field variational problem in a spatial domain, which controls the propagation of pandemic by the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-12 Wonjun Lee , Siting Liu , Wuchen Li , Stanley Osher