Related papers: Generalization error bounds for stationary autoreg…

In this paper, we consider the normalized least squares estimator of the parameter in a mildly stationary first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model with dependent errors which are modeled as a mildly stationary AR(1) process. By martingale…

We propose a procedure to decide between the null hypothesis of (strict) stationarity and the alternative of non-stationarity, in the context of a Random Coefficient AutoRegression (RCAR). The procedure is based on randomising a diagnostic…

We derive explicit non-asymptotic PAC-Bayes generalization bounds for Gibbs posteriors, that is, data-dependent distributions over model parameters obtained by exponentially tilting a prior with the empirical risk. Unlike classical…

Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…

The effectiveness of non-parametric, kernel-based methods for function estimation comes at the price of high computational complexity, which hinders their applicability in adaptive, model-based control. Motivated by approximation techniques…

In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the…

In application areas where data generation is expensive, Gaussian processes are a preferred supervised learning model due to their high data-efficiency. Particularly in model-based control, Gaussian processes allow the derivation of…

In this paper, we propose a new covering technique localized for the trajectories of SGD. This localization provides an algorithm-specific complexity measured by the covering number, which can have dimension-independent cardinality in…

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic…

The success of deep learning has led to a rising interest in the generalization property of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method, and stability is one popular approach to study it. Existing works based on stability have studied…

Here we develop a first order autoregressive model {Xn} that is marginally stationary where Xn is the sum/ extreme of k i.i.d observations. We prove that stationary solutions to these models are either semi-selfdecomposable/…

Standard autoregressive seq2seq models are easily trained by max-likelihood, but tend to show poor results under small-data conditions. We introduce a class of seq2seq models, GAMs (Global Autoregressive Models), which combine an…

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an…

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…

Exponential generalization bounds with near-tight rates have recently been established for uniformly stable learning algorithms. The notion of uniform stability, however, is stringent in the sense that it is invariant to the data-generating…

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

We present a general approach, based on exponential inequalities, to derive bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. Using this approach, we provide bounds on the average generalization error as well as bounds…

This paper considers generalized linear models in the presence of many controls. We lay out a general methodology to estimate an effect of interest based on the construction of an instrument that immunize against model selection mistakes…

Analysing statistical properties of neural networks is a central topic in statistics and machine learning. However, most results in the literature focus on the properties of the neural network minimizing the training error. The goal of this…