Related papers: Fortelling catastrophes?
The problem of detecting the presence of a signal that can lead to a disaster is studied. A decision-maker collects data sequentially over time. At some point in time, called the change point, the distribution of data changes. This change…
We study the linear instabilities and bifurcations in the Selkov model for glycolysis with diffusion. We show that this model has a zero wave-vector, finite frequency Hopf bifurcation to a growing oscillatory but spatially homogeneous state…
A number of physical processes show some form of bifurcation or periodic splintering of a single distribution into two new ones. Recently, it has been noted that cavity searches for interactions between photons and exotic fields may also…
Many parts of the Earth system are thought to have multiple stable equilibrium states, with the potential for rapid and sometimes catastrophic shifts between them. The most common frameworks for analyzing stability changes, however, require…
In the following we consider a 2-dimensional system of ODE's containing quasiperiodic terms. The system is proposed as an extension of Mathieu-type equations to higher dimensions, with emphasis on how resonance between the internal…
It is shown that a coupled map model for open flow may exhibit spatial chaos and spatial quasiperiodicity with temporal periodicity. The locations of these patterns, which cover a substantial part of parameter space, are indicated in a…
The classical fold bifurcation is a paradigmatic example of a critical transition. It has been used in a variety of contexts, including in particular ecology and climate science, to motivate the role of slow recovery rates and increased…
Near a bifurcation point a system experiences critical slowing down. This leads to scaling behavior of fluctuations. We find that a periodically driven system may display three scaling regimes and scaling crossovers near a saddle-node…
Stochastic phenomena in which the noise amplitude is proportional to the fluctuating variable itself, usually called {\it multiplicative noise}, appear ubiquitously in physics, biology, economy and social sciences. The properties of…
Asymptotic state of an open quantum system can undergo qualitative changes upon small variation of system parameters. We demonstrate it that such 'quantum bifurcations' can be appropriately defined and made visible as changes in the…
Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…
We develop a formalism to describe the discrete-time dynamics of systems containing an arbitrary number of interacting species. The individual-based model, which forms our starting point, is described by a Markov chain, which in the limit…
Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…
We show experimentally the scenario of a two-frequency torus $T^2$ breakdown, in which a global bifurcation occurs due to the collision of a torus with an unstable periodic orbit, creating a heteroclinic saddle connection, followed by an…
Macroscopic fluctuations have become an essential tool to understand physics far from equilibrium due to the link between their statistics and nonequilibrium ensembles. The optimal path leading to a fluctuation encodes key information on…
A stochastic subgrid-scale parameterization based on the Ruelle's response theory and proposed in Wouters and Lucarini [2012] is tested in the context of a low-order coupled ocean-atmosphere model for which a part of the atmospheric modes…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
Explosive Percolation describes the abrupt onset of large-scale connectivity that results from a simple random process designed to delay the onset of the transition on an underlying random network or lattice. Explosive percolation…
We study local features, and provide a topological insight into the global structure of the probability density distribution and of the pattern of the optimal paths for large rare fluctuations away from a stable state. In contrast to…
The critical relations for statistical properties on saddle-node bifurcations are shown to display undulating fine structure, in addition to their known smooth dependence on the control parameter. A piecewise linear map with the type-I…