Related papers: Fortelling catastrophes?
A feature common to many models of vegetation pattern formation in semi-arid ecosystems is a sequence of qualitatively different patterned states, "gaps -> labyrinth -> spots", that occurs as a parameter representing precipitation…
When an oscillator switches abruptly between different frequencies, there is some ambiguity in deciding how the system should be modelled at the switch. Here we describe two seemingly natural models of a switch in a simple…
Many shear flows follow a route to turbulence that has striking similarities to bifurcation scenarios in low-dimensional dynamical systems. Among the bifurcations that appear, crisis bifurcations are important because they cause global…
An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the…
Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…
Friction is ubiquitous in daily life, from nanoscale machines to large engineering components. By probing the intricate interplay between system parameters and frictional behavior, scientists seek to unveil the underlying mechanisms that…
Fast-slow systems are studied usually by "geometrical dissection". The fast dynamics exhibit attractors which may bifurcate under the influence of the slow dynamics which is seen as a parameter of the fast dynamics. A generic solution comes…
A subcritical pattern-forming system with nonlinear advection in a bounded domain is recast as a slow-fast system in space and studied using a combination of geometric singular perturbation theory and numerical continuation. Two types of…
We study the quasi-periodicity phenomena occurring at the transition between tonic spiking and bursting activities in exemplary biologically plausible Hodgkin-Huxley type models of individual cells and reduced phenomenological models with…
Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…
We propose a scenario for the formation of localized turbulent spots in transition flows, which is known as resulting from the subcritical character of the transition. We show that it is not necessary to add 'by hand" a term of random noise…
Many elastic structures exhibit rapid shape transitions between two possible equilibrium states: umbrellas become inverted in strong wind and hopper popper toys jump when turned inside-out. This snap-through is a general motif for the…
A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node…
We study the effect of external forcing on the saddle-node bifurcation pattern of interval maps. By replacing fixed points of unperturbed maps by invariant graphs, we obtain direct analogues to the classical result both for random forcing…
This work provides a geometric approach to the study of bifurcation and rate induced transitions in a class of non-autonomous systems referred to herein as $\textit{asymptotically slow-fast systems}$, which may be viewed as 'intermediate'…
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…
The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) has played a key role in the search for reliable precursors of catastrophic regime shifts. This is caused by its presence in a generic class of bifurcating dynamical systems. Simple time-series…
Many dynamical systems, including power systems, recover from perturbations more slowly as they approach critical transitions---a phenomenon known as critical slowing down. If the system is stochastically forced, autocorrelation and…
A saddle-node bifurcation cascade is studied in the logistic equation, whose bifurcation points follow an expression formally identical to the one given by Feigenbaum for period doubling cascade. The Feigenbaum equation is generalized…
Critical transitions, or large changes in the state of a system after a small change in the system's external conditions or parameters, commonly occur in a wide variety of disciplines, from the biological and social sciences to physics.…