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We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

This paper axiomatizes, in a two-stage setup, a new theory for decision under risk and ambiguity. The axiomatized preference relation $\succeq$ on the space $\tilde{V}$ of random variables induces an ambiguity index $c$ on the space…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Roger J. A. Laeven , Mitja Stadje

I present a computational-level model of semantic interference effects in word production. Word production is cast as a rate-distortion problem where an agent selects words to minimize a measure of cost while also minimizing the resources…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-24 Richard Futrell

We propose and axiomatize preferences on a product state space in light of uncertainty regarding the dependency of different payoff-relevant factors. Dependence structures allow to decompose probabilities and allow to pin down behavior…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-28 Gerrit Bauch , Lorenz Hartmann

There is a sudden surge to model human behavior due to its vast and diverse applications which includes modeling public policies, economic behavior and consumer behavior. Most of the human behavior itself can be modeled into a choice…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-06 Prakash Rajan , Krishna P. Miyapuram

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to a dataset of binary risky choice. We quantitatively account for the fraction of choice reversals between two repetitions of the experiment, using a probabilistic choice…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-06 T. Kovalenko , S. Vincent , V. I. Yukalov , D. Sornette

In experimental design and causal inference, it may happen that the treatment is not defined on individual experimental units, but rather on pairs or, more generally, on groups of units. For example, teachers may choose pairs of students…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-24 Panos Toulis , Alexander Volfovsky , Edoardo M. Airoldi

There is presented a contextual statistical model of the probabilistic description of physical reality. Here contexts (complexes of physical conditions) are considered as basic elements of reality. There is discussed the relation with QM.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-09-08 Andrei Khrennikov

We study deliberative social choice, where voters engage in small-group discussions to output collective preferences that are then aggregated by a social choice rule. We introduce a simple deliberation-via-matching protocol. In this…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Kamesh Munagala , Qilin Ye , Ian Zhang

Satellite conjunction analysis is the assessment of collision risk during a close encounter between a satellite and another object in orbit. A counterintuitive phenomenon has emerged in the conjunction analysis literature, namely,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-25 Michael S. Balch , Ryan Martin , Scott Ferson

While probability theory is normally applied to external environments, there has been some recent interest in probabilistic modeling of the outputs of computations that are too expensive to run. Since mathematical logic is a powerful tool…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-10-10 Scott Garrabrant , Benya Fallenstein , Abram Demski , Nate Soares

Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-19 Duncan K. Foley , Ellis Scharfenaker

We investigate the connection between interference and computational power within the operationally defined framework of generalised probabilistic theories. To compare the computational abilities of different theories within this framework…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-07-30 Howard Barnum , Ciarán M. Lee , John H. Selby

Integrated information theory (IIT) starts from the existence of consciousness and characterizes its essential properties: every experience is intrinsic, specific, unitary, definite, and structured. IIT then formulates existence and its…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-20 William G. P. Mayner , William Marshall , Giulio Tononi

Objective probability in quantum mechanics is often thought to involve a stochastic process whereby an actual future is selected from a range of possibilities. Everett's seminal idea is that all possible definite futures on the pointer…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-02-09 Paul Tappenden

Network structure is a mechanism for promoting cooperation in social dilemma games. In the present study, we explore graph surgery, i.e., to slightly perturb the given network, towards a network that better fosters cooperation. To this end,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-06-26 Lingqi Meng , Naoki Masuda

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donald B. Rubin

Given a set of several inputs into a system (e.g., independent variables characterizing stimuli) and a set of several stochastically non-independent outputs (e.g., random variables describing different aspects of responses), how can one…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-09-04 Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov , Janne V. Kujala

Intertemporal decision making involves choices among options whose effects occur at different moments. These choices are influenced not only by the effect of rewards value perception at different moments, but also by the time perception…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-05-19 Natalia Destefano , Alexandre Souto Martinez

In this work we generalize standard Decision Theory by assuming that two outcomes can also be incomparable. Two motivating scenarios show how incomparability may be helpful to represent those situations where, due to lack of information,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-04 Piero A. Bonatti , Marco Faella , Luigi Sauro