Related papers: Decision Theory with Prospect Interference and Ent…
A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum…
When making decisions under risk, people often exhibit behaviors that classical economic theories cannot explain. Newer models that attempt to account for these irrational behaviors often lack neuroscience bases and require the introduction…
There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…
We study the following problem: Is it possible to explain the quantum interference of probabilities in the purely corpuscular model for elementary particles? We demonstrate that (by taking into account perturbation effects of measurement…
One way to make decisions under uncertainty is to select an optimal option from a possible range of options, by maximizing the expected utilities derived from a probability model. However, under severe uncertainty, identifying precise…
In this paper a new mathematical procedure is presented for combining different pieces of evidence which are represented in the interval form to reflect our knowledge about the truth of a hypothesis. Evidences may be correlated to each…
We follow the time sequence of binary elastic collisions in a small collection of hard-core particles. Intervals between the collisions are characterized by the numbers of collisions of different pairs in a given time. It was shown…
In quantum logic, i.e., within the structure of the Hilbert lattice imposed on all closed linear subspaces of a Hilbert space, the assignment of truth values to quantum propositions (i.e., experimentally verifiable propositions relating to…
In decision theory an act is a function from a set of conditions to the set of real numbers. The set of conditions is a partition in some algebra of events. The expected value of an act can be calculated when a probability measure is given.…
In this paper, we show that coherent sets of gambles and coherent lower and upper previsions can be embedded into the algebraic structure of information algebra. This leads firstly, to a new perspective of the algebraic and logical…
Randomized experiments on a network often involve interference between connected units; i.e., a situation in which an individual's treatment can affect the response of another individual. Current approaches to deal with interference, in…
The notion of context (complex of physical conditions) is basic in this paper. We show that the main structures of quantum theory (interference of probabilities, Born's rule, complex probabilistic amplitudes, Hilbert state space,…
The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…
Under interference, the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. Such interference patterns between units are typically represented by a network. Correctly specifying this network requires identifying which units can…
Consider an agent taking two successive decisions to maximize his expected utility under uncertainty. After his first decision, a signal is revealed that provides information about the state of nature. The observation of the signal allows…
This paper provides the foundations of a unified cognitive decision-making framework (QulBIT) which is derived from quantum theory. The main advantage of this framework is that it can cater for paradoxical and irrational human decision…
The architecture described in this paper encodes a theory of intentions based on the the key principles of non-procrastination, persistence, and automatically limiting reasoning to relevant knowledge and observations. The architecture…
For optimal stopping problems with time-inconsistent preference, we measure the inherent level of time-inconsistency by taking the time needed to turn the naive strategies into the sophisticated ones. In particular, when in a repeated…
The inference of rankings plays a central role in the theory of social choice, which seeks to establish preferences from collectively generated data, such as pairwise comparisons. Examples include political elections, ranking athletes based…
We present a simple argument using Promise Theory and dimensional analysis for the Dunbar scaling hierarchy, supported by recent data from group formation in Wikipedia editing. We show how the assumption of a common priority seeds group…