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Uncertainty quantification of complex technical systems is often based on a computer model of the system. As all models such a computer model is always wrong in the sense that it does not describe the reality perfectly. The purpose of this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-18 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

This paper develops a smooth test of goodness-of-fit for elliptical distributions. The test is adaptively omnibus, invariant to affine-linear transformations and has a convenient expression that can be broken into components. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-12 Gilles R. Ducharme , Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux

This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Yassir Fathullah , Mark J. F. Gales

In the framework of quantum optics, we study the problem of goodness-of-fit testing in a severely ill-posed inverse problem. A novel testing procedure is introduced and its rates of convergence are investigated under various smoothness…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-22 Katia Meziani

Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here we present prediction deviation, a new metric of uncertainty that…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-08 Benjamin Letham , Portia A. Letham , Cynthia Rudin , Edward P. Browne

We define data transformations that leave certain classes of distributions invariant, while acting in a specific manner upon the parameters of the said distributions. It is shown that under such transformations the maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-10 Muneya Matsui , Simos Meintanis

Since model selection is ubiquitous in data analysis, reproducibility of statistical results demands a serious evaluation of reliability of the employed model selection method, no matter what label it may have in terms of good properties.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-01 Yanjia Yu , Yi Yang , Yuhong Yang

Uncertainty quantification for complex deep learning models is increasingly important as these techniques see growing use in high-stakes, real-world settings. Currently, the quality of a model's uncertainty is evaluated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Benjamin Kompa , Jasper Snoek , Andrew Beam

The two key issues of modern Bayesian statistics are: (i) establishing principled approach for distilling statistical prior that is consistent with the given data from an initial believable scientific prior; and (ii) development of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-18 Subhadeep , Mukhopadhyay , Douglas Fletcher

In this paper a new class of uniformity tests is proposed. It is shown that those tests are applicable to the cases of any simple null hypothesis as well as for the composite null hypothesis of rectangular distributions on arbitrary…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-21 Bojana Milošević

A variety of statistics based on sample spacings has been studied in the literature for testing goodness-of-fit to parametric distributions. To test the goodness-of-fit to a nonparametric class of univariate shape-constrained densities,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-28 Kwun Chuen Gary Chan , Hok Kan Ling , Chuan-Fa Tang , Sheung Chi Phillip Yam

When a measurement of a physical quantity is reported, the total uncertainty is usually decomposed into statistical and systematic uncertainties. This decomposition is not only useful to understand the contributions to the total…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-03-18 Andrés Pinto , Zhibo Wu , Fabrice Balli , Nicolas Berger , Maarten Boonekamp , Émilien Chapon , Tatsuo Kawamoto , Bogdan Malaescu

The random coefficients model is an extension of the linear regression model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in the population by modeling the regression coefficients as random variables. Given data from this model, the statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-15 Fabian Dunker , Konstantin Eckle , Katharina Proksch , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

Experiments involving sensory analysis of foods and beverages are beneficial for selecting healthy products and assessing the preferences of potential consumers. They are generally planned in incomplete blocks, and their attributes, such as…

In many applications, we encounter data on Riemannian manifolds such as torus and rotation groups. Standard statistical procedures for multivariate data are not applicable to such data. In this study, we develop goodness-of-fit testing and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Wenkai Xu , Takeru Matsuda

We consider the error distribution in functional linear models with scalar response and functional covariate. Different asymptotic expansions of the empirical distribution function and the empirical characteristic function based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Natalie Neumeyer , Leonie Selk

Nonparametric generalized likelihood ratio test is popularly used for model checking for regressions. However, there are two issues that may be the barriers for its powerfulness. First, the bias term in its liming null distribution causes…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-23 Cuizhen Niu , Xu Guo , Lixing Zhu

The paper considers the classical Goodness of Fit test. It suggests to use the Gamma distribution for the approximation of the distribution of the Pearson statistics with unknown parameters estimated from raw data. The parameters of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-21 Nikolai Dokuchaev

We introduce estimation and test procedures through divergence optimization for discrete or continuous parametric models. This approach is based on a new dual representation for divergences. We treat point estimation and tests for simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Michel Broniatowski , Amor Keziou

As a common step in refining their scientific inquiry, investigators are often interested in performing some screening of a collection of given statistical hypotheses. For example, they may wish to determine whether any one of several…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-04 Adam Elder , Marco Carone , Peter Gilbert , Alex Luedtke