Related papers: The Australian Phillips curve and more
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…
Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income…
The correctness of Harrods model in the differential form is studied. The inadequacy of exponential growth of economy is shown; an alternative result is obtained. By example of Phillips model, an approach to correction of macroeconomic…
A new family of inflationary models is introduced and analysed. The behaviour of the parameters characterising the models suggest preferred values, which generate the most interesting testable predictions. Results are further improved if…
The correctness of Harrods model in the differential form is studied. The inadequacy of exponential growth of economy is shown; an alternative result is obtained. By example of Phillips model, an approach to correction of macroeconomic…
Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…
Model approximations are common practice when estimating structural or quasi-structural models. The paper considers the econometric properties of estimators that utilize projections to reimpose information about the exact model in the form…
In this paper, we present the possibility of using the Ising like models to explain by Statistical Physics means the connection between the financial discontinuities (herd behavior, bubbles, crashes) and "critical points" in physical of…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches…
We formulate a forward inflation index model with multi-factor volatility structure featuring a parametric form that allows calibration to correlations between indices of different tenors observed in the market. Assuming the nominal…
We develop a unified microeconomic and monetary theory of artificial intelligence inference costs and their pass-through to inflation, welfare, and optimal monetary policy. We introduce the Inference-Cost Phillips Curve (ICPC), an augmented…
Goodwin's model is a cornerstone in the study of dynamical systems within macroeconomics, explaining the interaction between employment ratio and wage share in a closed economy. Analogous to predator-prey dynamics in mathematical economics,…
Understanding electrical energy demand at the consumer level plays an important role in planning the distribution of electrical networks and offering of off-peak tariffs, but observing individual consumption patterns is still expensive. On…
The paper offers a unified approach to the study of three locally adaptive estimation methods in the context of univariate time series from both theoretical and empirical points of view. A general procedure for the computation of critical…
The quantile ratio index introduced by Prendergast and Staudte 2017 is a simple and effective measure of relative inequality for income data that is resistant to outliers. It measures the average relative distance of a randomly chosen…
Additive models are flexible regression tools that handle linear as well as nonlinear terms. The latter are typically modelled via smoothing splines. Additive mixed models extend additive models to include random terms when the data are…
Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…
While inflation gives an appealing explanation of observed cosmological data, there are a wide range of different inflation models, providing differing predictions for the initial perturbations. Typically models are motivated either by…
A statistical estimation model with qualitative input provides a mechanism to fuse human intuition in the form of qualitative information into a statistical model. We investigate the statistical properties of this model and devise a…