Related papers: The Australian Phillips curve and more
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of…
The predictiveness curve is a valuable tool for predictive evaluation, risk stratification, and threshold selection in a target population, given a single biomarker or a prediction model. In the presence of competing risks, regression…
A new methodology is proposed to approximate the time-dependent house price distribution at a fine regional scale using Gaussian mixtures. The means, variances and weights of the mixture components are related to time, location and dwelling…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
This paper considers forecasts of the growth and inflation distributions of the United Kingdom with factor-augmented quantile autoregressions under a model averaging framework. We investigate model combinations across models using weights…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…
This study is concerned with estimating the inequality measures associated with the underlying hypothetical income distribution from the times series grouped data on the Lorenz curve. We adopt the Dirichlet pseudo likelihood approach where…
This paper studies high-dimensional curve time series with common stochastic trends. A dual functional factor model structure is adopted with a high-dimensional factor model for the observed curve time series and a low-dimensional factor…
In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the…
Our computational economic analysis investigates the relationship between inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process. Extending the baseline model by Levy et al., we characterise the economic process through stylised return…
We develop a framework especially suited to the autocorrelation properties observed in financial times series, by borrowing from the physical picture of turbulence. The success of our approach as applied to high frequency foreign exchange…
This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…
Survey data are widely used to study how income inequality, poverty, and welfare evolve over time. A common practice is to estimate the income distribution separately for each year, treating annual observations as independent…
We propose a novel approximate factor model tailored for analyzing time-dependent curve data. Our model decomposes such data into two distinct components: a low-dimensional predictable factor component and an unpredictable error term. These…
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully…
Wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors, and inter-regional trade in electricity is growing. To model this, we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation, where constraints on…