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We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-15 Stephan Clémençon , Nathan Huet , Anne Sabourin

Many econometric models can be analyzed as finite mixtures. We focus on two-component mixtures and we show that they are nonparametrically point identified by a combination of an exclusion restriction and tail restrictions. Our…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-15 Marc Henry , Koen Jochmans , Bernard Salanié

In this paper we provide a new criterion for the comparison of claims, when we have conditional claims arising in stop loss contracts or contracts with franchise deductible. These stochastic comparisons are made on the basis of the Tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-12 Félix Belzunce , Alba M. Franco-Pereira , Julio Mulero

We provide conditions for the stochastic dominance comparisons of a risk $X$ and an associated risk $X+Z$, where $Z$ represents the uncertainty due to the environment and where $X$ and $Z$ can be dependent. The comparisons depend on both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-10 Jorge Navarro , José M. Zapata

Survivorship analysis allows to statistically analyze situations that can be modeled as waiting times to an event. These waiting times are characterized by the cumulative hazard rate, which can be estimated by the Nelson-Aalen estimator or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-04 Niklas Hohmann

Concentration inequalities form an essential toolkit in the study of high dimensional (HD) statistical methods. Most of the relevant statistics literature in this regard is based on sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential tail assumptions. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Abhishek Chakrabortty

We extend the construction principle of phase-type (PH) distributions to allow for inhomogeneous transition rates and show that this naturally leads to direct probabilistic descriptions of certain transformations of PH distributions. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-01 Hansjörg Albrecher , Mogens Bladt

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-29 Michael I. Tribelsky

For the directed edge preferential attachment network growth model studied by Bollobas et al. (2003) and Krapivsky and Redner (2001), we prove that the joint distribution of in-degree and out-degree has jointly regularly varying tails.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-21 Gennady Samorodnitsky , Sidney Resnick , Don Towsley , Richard Davis , Amy Willis , Phyllis Wan

We present novel martingale concentration inequalities for martingale differences with finite Orlicz-$\psi_\alpha$ norms. Such martingale differences with weak exponential-type tails scatters in many statistical applications and can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-19 Chris Junchi Li

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-26 Chiara Lattanzi , Manuele Leonelli

Consider two stationary time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. We aim to detect whether they have a causal relation, that is, if a change in one causes a change in the other. Usual methods for causal discovery are not well…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-20 Juraj Bodik , Zbyněk Pawlas , Milan Paluš

Suppose $F$ is a distribution on the half-line $[0,\infty)$. We study the limits of the ratios of tails $\bar{F*F}(x)/\bar{F}(x)$ as $x\to\infty$. We also discuss the classes of distributions ${\mathcal{S}}$, ${\mathcal{S}}(\gamma)$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Dmitry Korshunov

In reliability theory and survival analysis, observed data are often weakly dependent and subject to additive measurement errors. Such contamination arises when the underlying data are neither independent nor strongly mixed but instead…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Benjrada Mohammed Essalih

Our work aims to study the tail behaviour of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} X_{i} \prod_{j=1}^{i}Y_{j}$, where $(X_{i}, Y_{i})$ are independent and identically distributed, with common joint distribution bivariate Sarmanov.…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-05 Krishanu Maulik , Moumanti Podder

We study the long-time behavior of the probability density associated with the decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by a superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times. It is shown that if the random walk is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-05-02 S. I. Denisov , H. Kantz

This paper provides a detailed description for the asymptotics of exponential functionals of random walks with light/heavy tails. We give the convergence rate based on the key observation that the asymptotics depends on the sample paths…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Wei Xu

Confounding variables are a recurrent challenge for causal discovery and inference. In many situations, complex causal mechanisms only manifest themselves in extreme events, or take simpler forms in the extremes. Stimulated by data on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Olivier C. Pasche , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Anthony C. Davison

In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The assessment of risks should be carried out in accordance with the regulatory authority's requirement at high quantiles. In general, the underlying distribution function is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-15 Ingo Hoffmann , Christoph J. Börner

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Emma S. Simpson , Jonathan A. Tawn