Related papers: Limit Theorems in Hidden Markov Models

In this paper, we are concerned with centered Markov Additive Processes $\{(X_t,Y_t)\}_{t\in\T}$ where the driving Markov process $\{X_t\}_{t\in\T}$ has a finite state space. Under suitable conditions, we provide a local limit theorem for…

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) establishes that sufficiently large sequences of independent and identically distributed random variables converge in probability to a normal distribution. This makes the CLT a fundamental building block of…

Consider multiple sums $S_n$ on the $d$-dimensional integer grid,which are generated by i.i.d.\ random variables with a positive expectation. We prove the strong law of large numbers, the law of the iterated logarithm and the distributional…

In this paper, we develop a general law of large numbers and central limit theorem for cumulative reward processes associated with finite state Markov jump processes with non-stationary transition rates. Such models commonly arise in…

The work [8] established memory loss in the time-dependent (non-random) case of uniformly expanding maps of the interval. Here we find conditions under which we have convergence to the normal distribution of the appropriately scaled…

This paper extends classical probabilistic results to the broader class of demimartingales and demisubmartingales. We establish variants of Doob's-type optional sampling theorem under minimal structural conditions on stopping times, relying…

Consider the problem of predicting the next symbol given a sample path of length n, whose joint distribution belongs to a distribution class that may have long-term memory. The goal is to compete with the conditional predictor that knows…

Let $\{X_{k,i};i\geq 1,k\geq 1\}$ be an array of i.i.d. random variables and let $\{p_n;n\geq 1\}$ be a sequence of positive integers such that $n/p_n$ is bounded away from 0 and $\infty$. For $W_n=\max_{1\leq i<j\leq…

We show that maximum entropy (maxent) models can be modeled with certain kinds of HMMs, allowing us to construct maxent models with hidden variables, hidden state sequences, or other characteristics. The models can be trained using the…

The general limit distributions of the sum of random variables described by a finite matrix product ansatz are characterized. Using a mapping to a Hidden Markov Chain formalism, non-standard limit distributions are obtained, and related to…

We derive a central limit theorem for the probability distribution of the sum of many critically correlated random variables. The theorem characterizes a variety of different processes sharing the same asymptotic form of anomalous scaling…

Scientific explanation often requires inferring maximally predictive features from a given data set. Unfortunately, the collection of minimal maximally predictive features for most stochastic processes is uncountably infinite. In such…

Consider an nxn random matrix X with i.i.d. nonnegative entries with bounded density, mean m, and finite positive variance sigma^2. Let M be the nxn random Markov matrix with i.i.d. rows obtained from X by dividing each row of X by its sum.…

In this study we consider limit theorems for microscopic stochastic models of neural fields. We show that the Wilson-Cowan equation can be obtained as the limit in probability on compacts for a sequence of microscopic models when the number…

We are interested in a fragmentation process. We observe fragments frozen when their sizes are less than {\epsilon} ({\epsilon} > 0). It is known ([BM05]) that the empirical measure of these fragments converges in law, under some…

When dealing with modern big data sets, a very common theme is reducing the set through a random process. These generally work by making "many simple estimates" of the full data set, and then judging them as a whole. Perhaps magically,…

Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…

Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods,…

We study dynamical systems arising as time-dependent compositions of Pomeau-Manneville-type intermittent maps. We establish central limit theorems for appropriately scaled and centered Birkhoff-like partial sums, with estimates on the rate…

For $1\le p \le \infty$, the Fr\'echet $p$-mean of a probability measure on a metric space is an important notion of central tendency that generalizes the usual notions in the real line of mean ($p=2$) and median ($p=1$). In this work we…