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The n-point statistics of singularity strength variables for multiplicative branching processes is calculated from an analytic expression of the corresponding multivariate generating function. The key ingredient is a branching generating…

This paper discusses a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, where the rate function is the exponential function. We call these processes loglinear Hawkes processes. In the main theorem, we give sufficient conditions for explosion…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Matthias Kirchner , Mariusz Niewęgłowski

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Negar Erfanian , Santiago Segarra , Maarten de Hoop

We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-06 Antoine Mandel , Vipin P. Veetil

We study diffusion-driven pattern-formation in networks of networks, a class of multilayer systems, where different layers have the same topology, but different internal dynamics. Agents are assumed to disperse within a layer by undergoing…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-28 Andreas Brechtel , Philipp Gramlich , Daniel Ritterskamp , Barbara Drossel , Thilo Gross

We introduce and analyze several variants of a system of differential equations which model the dynamics of social outbursts, such as riots. The systems involve the coupling of an explicit variable representing the intensity of rioting…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-07-08 Henri Berestycki , Jean-Pierre Nadal , Nancy Rodriguez

Multistability, the coexistence of multiple attractors in a dynamical system, is explored in bursting nerve cells. A modeling study is performed to show that a large class of bursting systems, as defined by a shared topology when…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2010-06-29 J. P. Newman , R. J. Butera

Evolutionary game theory has been successfully used to investigate the dynamics of systems, in which many entities have competitive interactions. From a physics point of view, it is interesting to study conditions under which a coordination…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-14 Dirk Helbing , Anders Johansson

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Xenia Miscouridou , Samir Bhatt , George Mohler , Seth Flaxman , Swapnil Mishra

A naive model of many networked logistic maps with an excitation type coupling [Neural Networks, vol. 20, 102--108 (2007)], which is an extension of other low dimensional models, has been recently proposed to mimic the waking-sleeping…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-06-13 Ricardo Lopez-Ruiz , Daniele Fournier-Prunaret

Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-06 Aleksandar A. Kolev , Gordon J. Ross

The spontaneous generation of electrical activity underpins a number of essential physiological processes, and is observed even in tissues where specialized pacemaker cells have not been identified. The emergence of periodic oscillations in…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-02-01 Ria Ghosh , Shakti N. Menon

We continue the work of a series of previous studies of a mathematical model that describes the mean-field limit behavior of a homogeneous network of excitatory point spiking neurons. Contrary to other models, here noise is intrinsic to the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-07-20 Guillem Via

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

Crowdfunding is a powerful tool for individuals or organizations seeking financial support from a vast audience. Despite widespread adoption, managers often lack information about dynamics of their platforms. Hawkes processes have been used…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-26 Alexandra Djorno , Forrest W. Crawford

There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, urban crimes, nuclear reactions, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-09-16 Tomokatsu Onaga , Shigeru Shinomoto

We present consensus analysis of systems with single integrator dynamics interacting via time-varying graphs under the event-triggered control paradigm. Event-triggered control sparsifies the control applied, thus reducing the control…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-05-03 S. Arun Kumar , N. R. Chowdhury , S. Srikant , J. Raisch

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Hypergraphs naturally represent higher-order interactions, which persistently appear from social interactions to neural networks and other natural systems. Although their importance is well recognized, a theoretical framework to describe…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-25 Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda , Michele Tizzani , Yamir Moreno

The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Hyotae Kim , Athanasios Kottas
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