Related papers: Properties of a Stochastic Model for Life Table Da…
The Cox proportional hazards model is routinely used to analyze time-to-event data. To use this model requires the definition of a unique well-defined time scale. Most often, observation time is used as the time scale for both clinical and…
Frailty and resilience models provide a way to introduce random effects in hazard and reversed hazard rate modeling by random variables, called frailty and resilience random variables, respectively, to account for unobserved or unexplained…
We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…
In this paper we introduce a new lifetime distribution by compounding exponential and Poisson-Lindley distributions, named exponential Poisson-Lindley distribution. Several properties are derived, such as density, failure rate, mean…
We study contact epidemic models for the spread of infective diseases in finite populations. The size dependence enters in the infection rate. The dynamics of such models is then analyzed within the deterministic approximation, as well as…
The Health State Function theory is applied to find a quantitative estimate of the Human Development Stages by defining and calculating the specific age groups and subgroups. Early and late adolescence stages, first, second and third stages…
We propose a modelling framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of heterogeneous, multi-scale cellular populations. We illustrate our methodology with a particular example in which we study a population with an oxygen-regulated…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic ratio-dependent predator-prey model. We firstly prove the existence, uniqueness and positivity of the solutions. Then, the boundedness of moments of population are studied. Finally, we show the…
Various features of the development of individual living species, including individual humans, are programmed. Is death also programmed, and if yes, how is it implemented and what can be the underlying mechanism providing the inevitability…
Will the United Kingdom's ageing population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Healthy life expectancy is commonly used to assess this: it is an estimate of how many years are lived in good health over the…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…
This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic…
How long a stochastic process survives before leaving a domain depends not only on its intrinsic dynamics but also on how it is observed. Classical first-passage theory assumes continuous monitoring with absorbing boundaries…
I discuss the so-called stochastic individual based model of adaptive dynamics and in particular how different scaling limits can be obtained by taking limits of large populations, small mutation rate, and small effect of single mutations…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
In this paper, we first propose a new extended mixture model of residual lifetime distributions. We show that this model is suitable in modeling residual lifetime in some practical situations. Several closure properties of some well-known…