Related papers: Properties of a Stochastic Model for Life Table Da…
We exhibit a stochastic discrete time model that has exactly the Eigen model as its deterministic continuous limit. Such model can be divided into two phases: reproduction followed by neutral selection. This result suggests that Eigen model…
The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the mechanism for the interplay of deterministic and stochastic models for contagious diseases. Deterministic models for contagious diseases are prone to predict global stability. Small natural birth…
The face is a rich source of information that can be utilized to infer a person's biological age, sex, phenotype, genetic defects, and health status. All of these factors are relevant for predicting an individual's remaining lifespan. In…
Demographic stochasticity is important in determining extinction risks of small populations, but it is largely unknown how its effect depends on the life histories of species. We modeled effects of demographic stochasticity on extinction…
We study the first-passage time to the origin of a mortal Brownian particle, with mortality rate $ \mu $, diffusing in one dimension. The particle starts its motion from $ x>0 $ and it is subject to stochastic resetting with constant rate $…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in different contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis,…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
This paper presents and derives the interrelations between survival analysis and master equation. Survival analysis deals with modeling the transitions between succeeding states of a system in terms of hazard rates. Questions related with…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
An individual-based model of stochastic branching is proposed and studied, in which point particles drift in $\bar{\mathds{R}}_{+}:=[0,+\infty)$ towards the origin (edge) with unit speed, where each of them splits into two particles that…
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…
The question of whether biological populations survive or are eventually driven to extinction has long been examined using mathematical models. In this work we study population survival or extinction using a stochastic, discrete…
The aim of this paper is to tackle part of the program set by Diekmann et al. in their seminal paper Diekmann et al. (2001). We quote "It remains to investigate whether, and in what sense, the nonlinear determin-istic model formulation is…
Density dependence is important in the ecology and evolution of microbial and cancer cells. Typically, we can only measure net growth rates, but the underlying density-dependent mechanisms that give rise to the observed dynamics can…
Ben-Ari and Schinazi (2016) introduced a stochastic model to study `virus-like evolving population with high mutation rate'. This model is a birth and death model with an individual at birth being either a mutant with a random fitness…
Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…