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We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

Although the specification of bivariate probability models using a collection of assumed conditional distributions is not a novel concept, it has received considerable attention in the last decade. In this study, a bivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-20 Indranil Ghosh , Mina Norouzirad , Filipe J. Marques

In this paper a class of optimization problems with uncertain linear constraints is discussed. It is assumed that the constraint coefficients are random vectors whose probability distributions are only partially known. Possibility theory is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-30 Romain Guillaume , Adam Kasperski , Pawel Zielinski

Conditional diffusion models serve as the foundation of modern image synthesis and find extensive application in fields like computational biology and reinforcement learning. In these applications, conditional diffusion models incorporate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Hengyu Fu , Zhuoran Yang , Mengdi Wang , Minshuo Chen

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Andres Altieri , Marco Romanelli , Georg Pichler , Florence Alberge , Pablo Piantanida

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Athénaïs Gautier , David Ginsbourger , Guillaume Pirot

Non-asymptotic theory of random matrices strives to investigate the spectral properties of random matrices, which are valid with high probability for matrices of a large fixed size. Results obtained in this framework find their applications…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-02 Mark Rudelson

Functions or distributions used to sample and to reconstruct signals often occur in different domains, like the Dirac delta and a band-limited bump function in classical sampling. Oblique dual frames generalize this phenomenon. In this…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Dongwei Chen , Emily J. King , Clayton Shonkwiler

Assessing goodness of fit to a given distribution plays an important role in computational statistics. The Probability integral transformation (PIT) can be used to convert the question of whether a given sample originates from a reference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-22 Teemu Säilynoja , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

We discuss a graph-based approach for testing spatial point patterns. This approach falls under the category of data-random graphs, which have been introduced and used for statistical pattern recognition in recent years. Our goal is to test…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-02-06 E. Ceyhan , C. E. Priebe , D. J. Marchette

Over the last few decades power law distributions have been suggested as forming generative mechanisms in a variety of disparate fields, such as, astrophysics, criminology and database curation. However, fitting these heavy tailed…

Computation · Statistics 2014-08-26 Colin S. Gillespie

Conformal testing is a way of testing the IID assumption based on conformal prediction. The topic of this note is computational evaluation of the performance of conformal testing in a model situation in which IID binary observations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-06 Vladimir Vovk

Inference based on the penalized density ratio model is proposed and studied. The model under consideration is specified by assuming that the log--likelihood function of two unknown densities is of some parametric form. The model has been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-07-17 Konstantinos Fokianos

The distribution of the sum of independent identically distributed uniform random variables is well-known. However, it is sometimes necessary to analyze data which have been drawn from different uniform distributions. By inverting the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-05-25 David M. Bradley , Ramesh C. Gupta

This article is an exposition on some recent theoretical advances in learning latent structured models, with a primary focus on the fundamental roles that optimal transport distances play in the statistical theory. We aim at what may be the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-19 XuanLong Nguyen , Yun Wei

Building on B.Park and Vondrak's recent generalization of the J.Park-Pham Theorem (formerly known as Kahn-Kalai conjecture) to non-uniform probability measures, this paper introduces the notion of "spread" for the non-uniform setting. This…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Thinula De Silva , Pu Gao

In this paper, we consider the problem of non-linear dimensionality reduction under uncertainty, both from a theoretical and algorithmic perspectives. Since real-world data usually contain measurements with uncertainties and artifacts, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Firas Laakom , Jenni Raitoharju , Nikolaos Passalis , Alexandros Iosifidis , Moncef Gabbouj

In this work we study the dynamics of systems composed of numerous interacting elements interconnected through a random weighted directed graph, such as models of random neural networks. We develop an original theoretical approach based on…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-09-30 Gilles Wainrib , Mathieu Galtier

One of the most elusive challenges within the area of topological data analysis is understanding the distribution of persistence diagrams. Despite much effort, this is still largely an open problem. In this paper, we present a series of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-11 Omer Bobrowski , Primoz Skraba

This paper is concerned with a rate-distortion theory for sequences of i.i.d. random variables with general distribution supported on general sets including manifolds and fractal sets. Manifold structures are prevalent in data science,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-04-25 Erwin Riegler , Günther Koliander , Helmut Bölcskei
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