Related papers: Modeling Dengue Outbreaks
Dengue is one of the major international public health concerns. Although progress is underway, developing a vaccine against the disease is challenging. Thus, the main approach to fight the disease is vector control. A model for the…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and 40% of world population is at risk. Dengue transcends international borders and can be found in tropical and subtropical regions around the world, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas. A model for…
Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…
The time-varying reproduction number ($R_t$) gives an indication of the trajectory of an infectious disease outbreak. Commonly used frameworks for inferring $R_t$ from epidemiological time series include those based on compartmental models…
Due to the rapid geographic spread of the Aedes mosquito and the increase in dengue incidence, dengue fever has been an increasing concern for public health authorities in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide. Significant challenges…
The paper describes and compares three approaches to modeling an epidemic spread. The first approach is a well-known system of SIR ordinary differential equations. The second is a mean-field model, in which an isolation strategy for each…
Spatially constrained clustering is an important field of research, particularly when it involves changes over time. Partitioning a map is not simple since there is a vast number of possible partitions within the search space. In…
We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. Though the described Bayesian computational framework is general, we look at a specific application to the…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
Our paper investigates distributions of exposed and infectious time periods in an epidemic model and how applying a disease control strategy affects the model's accuracy. While ordinary differential equations are widely used for their…
A model with six mutually-exclusive compartments related to Dengue disease is presented. In this model there are three vector control tools: insecticides (larvicide and adulticide) and mechanical control. The problem is studied using an…
Contagious processes, such as spread of infectious diseases, social behaviors, or computer viruses, affect biological, social, and technological systems. Epidemic models for large populations and finite populations on networks have been…
In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease common in tropical areas, is spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Temperature changes driven by climate affect vector ecology and expand regions of species coexistence. The combined effect of…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…