Related papers: Modeling Dengue Outbreaks
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI epidemiological model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, subject to seasonal variations. Assuming continuous measurement of the incidence rate (that is the…
Arboviruses represent a significant threat to human, animal, and plant health worldwide. To elucidate transmission, anticipate their spread and efficiently control them, mechanistic modelling has proven its usefulness. However, most models…
TThis paper presents the dynamics of mosquitoes and humans, with general nonlinear incidence rate and multiple distributed delays for the disease. The model is a SEIRS system of delay differential equations. The normalized dimensionless…
We study the qualitative properties of a spatial diffusive heterogeneous SIR model, that appears in mathematical epidemiology to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a population. The model we consider consists in a system of…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…
A model for the transmission of dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (adulticide spray) in order to combat the…
Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space…
As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…
We investigate a model for a mosquito-borne epidemic in which human hosts may adopt protective behaviour against vector bites in response to information on both past and current disease prevalence. Assuming that mosquitoes can also feed on…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
It is possible to model vector-borne infection using the classical Ross-Macdonald model. This attempt, however fails in several respects. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, the model predicts a much greater number of cases…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…
This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…