Related papers: Robust Estimation of Operational Risk
Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) are widely used to infer conditional dependence structures in high-dimensional data. However, standard precision matrix estimators are highly sensitive to data contamination, such as extreme outliers and…
Control of nonlinear distributed parameter systems (DPS) under uncertainty is a meaningful task for many industrial processes. However, both intrinsic uncertainty and high dimensionality of DPS require intensive computations, while…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
In this paper, we propose self-tuned robust estimators for estimating the mean of heavy-tailed distributions, which refer to distributions with only finite variances. Our approach introduces a new loss function that considers both the mean…
This paper investigates model robustness in reinforcement learning (RL) to reduce the sim-to-real gap in practice. We adopt the framework of distributionally robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs), aimed at learning a policy that…
Robust Ordinal Regression (ROR) is a way of dealing with Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA), by considering all sets of parameters of an assumed preference model, that are compatible with preference information given by the Decision…
We study a scalable alternative to robust gradient descent (RGD) techniques that can be used when the gradients can be heavy-tailed, though this will be unknown to the learner. The core technique is simple: instead of trying to robustly…
We introduce robustness in \textit{restless multi-armed bandits} (RMABs), a popular model for constrained resource allocation among independent stochastic processes (arms). Nearly all RMAB techniques assume stochastic dynamics are precisely…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…
To accommodate numerous practical scenarios, in this paper we extend statistical inference for smoothed quantile estimators from finite domains to infinite domains. We accomplish the task with the help of a newly designed truncation…
Risk contagion concerns any entity dealing with large scale risks. Suppose (X,Y) denotes a risk vector pertaining to two components in some system. A relevant measurement of risk contagion would be to quantify the amount of influence of…
We study the problem of robustly estimating the mean of a $d$-dimensional distribution given $N$ examples, where most coordinates of every example may be missing and $\varepsilon N$ examples may be arbitrarily corrupted. Assuming each…
A regularized risk minimization procedure for regression function estimation is introduced that achieves near optimal accuracy and confidence under general conditions, including heavy-tailed predictor and response variables. The procedure…
Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for…
Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…
Off-policy evaluation and learning (OPE/L) use offline observational data to make better decisions, which is crucial in applications where online experimentation is limited. However, depending entirely on logged data, OPE/L is sensitive to…
Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log…
Heavy-tailed probability distributions are extremely useful and play a crucial role in modeling different types of financial data sets. This study presents a two-pronged methodology. First, a mixture probability distribution is created by…
In this paper, we study the robust optimal investment and risk control problem for an insurer who owns the insider information about the financial market and the insurance market under model uncertainty. Both financial risky asset process…
Online planning in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) enables agents to make sequential decisions by simulating future trajectories from the current state, making it well-suited for large-scale or dynamic environments. Sample-based methods…