Related papers: An Efficient, Distributable, Risk Neutral Framewor…
We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…
Cross-validation (CV) is a technique used to estimate generalization error for prediction models. For pipeline modeling algorithms (i.e. modeling procedures with multiple steps), it has been recommended the entire sequence of steps be…
This article prices OTC derivatives with either an exogenously determined initial margin profile or endogenously approximated initial margin. In the former case, margin valuation adjustment (MVA) is defined as the liability-side discounted…
This paper presents a new method to assess default risk based on applying the CEV process to the KMV model. We find that the volatility of the firm asset value may not be a constant, so we assume the firm's asset value dynamics are given by…
We provided proof here that coefficient of variation (CV) is a direct measure of risk using an equation that has been derived here for the first time. We also presented a method to generate a stock CV based on return that strongly…
This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset…
Cross-validation (CV) is one of the main tools for performance estimation and parameter tuning in machine learning. The general recipe for computing CV estimate is to run a learning algorithm separately for each CV fold, a computationally…
Estimating customer lifetime value (CLV or LTV) is extremely important for making better business decisions. The proposed flexible proportional hazards model allows an estimation of lifetime value in contractual settings. This approach…
We introduce the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, including default of the investor. We illustrate the symmetry in the valuation and show that the adjustment…
We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss…
This paper presents a new model for pricing financial derivatives subject to collateralization. It allows for collateral arrangements adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out the market price of a collateralized…
This paper addresses the estimation of the systemic risk measure known as CoVaR, which quantifies the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another portfolio being at risk. We identify two principal challenges: conditioning on a…
This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…
Risk measure forecast and model have been developed in order to not only provide better forecast but also preserve its (empirical) property especially coherent property. Whilst the widely used risk measure of Value-at-Risk (VaR) has shown…
The effect of self-default on the valuation of liabilities and derivatives (DVA) has been widely discussed but the effect on assets has not received similar attention. Any asset whose value depends on the status, or existence, of the firm…
Risk management is very important for individual investors or companies. There are many ways to measure the risk of investment. Prices of risky assets vary rapidly and randomly due to the complexity of finance market. Random interval is a…
Variable Annuity (VA) products expose insurance companies to considerable risk because of the guarantees they provide to buyers of these products. Managing and hedging these risks requires insurers to find the value of key risk metrics for…
In this paper, the author considers the numerical computation of CVA for large systems by Mote Carlo methods. He introduces two types of stochastic mesh methods for the computations of CVA. In the first method, stochastic mesh method is…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…