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The number of observable degrees of freedom is typically limited in experiments. Here, we consider discrete Markov networks in which an observer has access to a few visible transitions and the waiting times between these transitions.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-26 Alexander M. Maier , Udo Seifert , Jann van der Meer

Time-series models typically assume untainted and legitimate streams of data. However, a self-interested adversary may have incentive to corrupt this data, thereby altering a decision maker's inference. Within the broader field of…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-02-22 William N. Caballero , Jose Manuel Camacho , Tahir Ekin , Roi Naveiro

With the simultaneous rise of energy costs and demand for cloud computing, efficient control of data centers becomes crucial. In the data center control problem, one needs to plan at every time step how many servers to switch on or off in…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-01-25 Paul Weng , Zeqi Qiu , John Costanzo , Xiaoqi Yin , Bruno Sinopoli

We present discrete-time approximation of optimal control policies for infinite horizon discounted/ergodic control problems for controlled diffusions in $\Rd$\,. In particular, our objective is to show near optimality of optimal policies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Somnath Pradhan , Serdar Yuksel

This paper investigates the limit behavior of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) made of independent particles evolving in a common environment, when the number of particles goes to infinity. In the finite horizon case or with a discounted…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-10 Nicolas Gast , Bruno Gaujal

We consider the task of evaluating a policy for a Markov decision process (MDP). The standard unbiased technique for evaluating a policy is to deploy the policy and observe its performance. We show that the data collected from deploying a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-06-13 Josiah P. Hanna , Philip S. Thomas , Peter Stone , Scott Niekum

Scientific explanation often requires inferring maximally predictive features from a given data set. Unfortunately, the collection of minimal maximally predictive features for most stochastic processes is uncountably infinite. In such…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-05-31 Sarah E. Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

We investigate the problem of synthesizing optimal control policies for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with both qualitative and quantitative objectives. Specifically, our goal is to achieve a given linear temporal logic (LTL) task with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-08 Yu Chen , Shaoyuan Li , Xiang Yin

This paper studies the synthesis of a joint control and active perception policy for a stochastic system modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), subject to temporal logic specifications. The POMDP actions…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-21 Chongyang Shi , Michael R. Dorothy , Jie Fu

Inference for partially observed Markov process models has been a longstanding methodological challenge with many scientific and engineering applications. Iterated filtering algorithms maximize the likelihood function for partially observed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Edward L. Ionides , Anindya Bhadra , Yves Atchadé , Aaron King

This paper investigates natural conditions for the existence of optimal policies for a Markov decision process with incomplete information (MDPII) and with expected total costs. The MDPII is the classic model of a controlled stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-30 Eugene A. Feinberg , Pavlo O. Kasyanov , Michael Z. Zgurovsky

This paper combines data-driven and model-driven methods for real-time misinformation detection. Our algorithm, named QuickStop, is an optimal stopping algorithm based on a probabilistic information spreading model obtained from labeled…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Honghao Wei , Xiaohan Kang , Weina Wang , Lei Ying

In this work we formulate and treat an extension of the Imitation from Observations problem. Imitation from Observations is a generalisation of the well-known Imitation Learning problem where state-only demonstrations are considered. In our…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-11 Tom Lefebvre

We study the policy testing problem in discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs) in the fixed-confidence setting under a generative model with static sampling. The goal is to decide whether the value of a given policy exceeds a specified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Kaito Ariu , Po-An Wang , Alexandre Proutiere , Kenshi Abe

We investigate a stationary process's crypticity---a measure of the difference between its hidden state information and its observed information---using the causal states of computational mechanics. Here, we motivate crypticity and cryptic…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 John R. Mahoney , Christopher J. Ellison , Ryan G. James , James P. Crutchfield

We extend the classical setting of an optimal stopping problem under full information to include for problems with an unknown state. The framework allows the unknown state to influence (i) the drift of the underlying process, (ii) the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-08 Erik Ekström , Yuqiong Wang

Decision-making problems in uncertain or stochastic domains are often formulated as Markov decision processes (MDPs). Policy iteration (PI) is a popular algorithm for searching over policy-space, the size of which is exponential in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Yishay Mansour , Satinder Singh

This work investigates the problem of analyzing privacy of abrupt changes for general Markov processes. These processes may be affected by changes, or exogenous signals, that need to remain private. Privacy refers to the disclosure of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-04 Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

Autonomous systems are increasingly expected to operate in the presence of adversaries, though adversaries may infer sensitive information simply by observing a system. Therefore, present a deceptive sequential decision-making framework…

Based on information theory, we present a method to determine an optimal Markov approximation for modelling and prediction from time series data. The method finds a balance between minimal modelling errors by taking as much as possible…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2013-05-29 Detlef Holstein , Holger Kantz