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We consider the problem of predicting the next observation given a sequence of past observations, and consider the extent to which accurate prediction requires complex algorithms that explicitly leverage long-range dependencies. Perhaps…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-29 Vatsal Sharan , Sham Kakade , Percy Liang , Gregory Valiant

We introduce the minimal maximally predictive models ({\epsilon}-machines) of processes generated by certain hidden semi-Markov models. Their causal states are either hybrid discrete-continuous or continuous random variables and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-05-24 Sarah E. Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Bickel , Yaacov Ritov , Tobias Rydén

This paper focuses on optimizing probabilities of events of interest defined over general controlled discrete-time Markov processes. It is shown that the optimization over a wide class of $\omega$-regular properties can be reduced to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-22 Ilya Tkachev , Alexandru Mereacre , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Alessandro Abate

The study of Markov models is central to control theory and machine learning. A quantum analogue of partially observable Markov decision process was studied in (Barry, Barry, and Aaronson, Phys. Rev. A, 90, 2014). It was proved that…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-11-06 Christino Tamon , Weichen Xie

We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-28 David A. Meyer , Asif Shakeel

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Hany Abdulsamad , Sahel Iqbal , Simo Särkkä

Lying on the heart of intelligent decision-making systems, how policy is represented and optimized is a fundamental problem. The root challenge in this problem is the large scale and the high complexity of policy space, which exacerbates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-19 Min Zhang , Hongyao Tang , Jianye Hao , Yan Zheng

This paper studies the remote estimation of multiple Markov sources over a lossy and rate-constrained channel. Unlike most existing studies that treat all source states equally, we exploit the \emph{semantics of information} and consider…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-22 Jiping Luo , Nikolaos Pappas

This paper concerns discrete-time infinite-horizon stochastic control systems with Borel state and action spaces and universally measurable policies. We study optimization problems on strategic measures induced by the policies in these…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-22 Huizhen Yu

Multi-objective optimization models that encode ordered sequential constraints provide a solution to model various challenging problems including encoding preferences, modeling a curriculum, and enforcing measures of safety. A recently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Kyle Hollins Wray , Stas Tiomkin , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Pieter Abbeel

We present a method for a certain class of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that can relate the optimal policy back to one or more reward sources in the environment. For a given initial state, without fully computing the value function,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Josh Bertram , Peng Wei

In a real life process evolving over time, the relationship between its relevant variables may change. Therefore, it is advantageous to have different inference models for each state of the process. Asymmetric hidden Markov models fulfil…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Carlos Puerto-Santana , Pedro Larrañaga , Concha Bielza

The problem of multi-hypothesis testing with controlled sensing of observations is considered. The distribution of observations collected under each control is assumed to follow a single-parameter exponential family distribution. The goal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-29 Aditya Deshmukh , Srikrishna Bhashyam , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

In this paper, we consider the finite-state approximation of a discrete-time constrained Markov decision process (MDP) under the discounted and average cost criteria. Using the linear programming formulation of the constrained discounted…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-07-10 Naci Saldi

A key issue in the control of distributed discrete systems modeled as Markov decisions processes, is that often the state of the system is not directly observable at any single location in the system. The participants in the control scheme…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-05-01 Jie Ren , Solmaz Torabi , John MacLaren Walsh

We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-02-28 Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Peter L. Bartlett , Alan Malek

Determining the most appropriate features for machine learning predictive models is challenging regarding performance and feature acquisition costs. In particular, global feature choice is limited given that some features will only benefit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Gabriel Bernardino , Anders Jonsson , Patrick Clarysse , Nicolas Duchateau

Many real-world decision making tasks require us to choose among several expensive observations. In a sensor network, for example, it is important to select the subset of sensors that is expected to provide the strongest reduction in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-16 Andreas Krause , Carlos Guestrin
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