Related papers: A certain estimate of volatility through return fo…
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…
Fractional stochastic volatility models have been widely used to capture the non-Markovian structure revealed from financial time series of realized volatility. On the other hand, empirical studies have identified scales in stock price…
Multivariate probability density functions of returns are constructed in order to model the empirical behavior of returns in a financial time series. They describe the well-established deviations from the Gaussian random walk, such as an…
Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…
We present a detailed analysis of \emph{observable} moments based parameter estimators for the Heston SDEs jointly driving the rate of returns $R_t$ and the squared volatilities $V_t$. Since volatilities are not directly observable, our…
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the…
Dividend discount models have been developed in a deterministic setting. Some authors (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998; Yao, 1997) have introduced randomness in terms of stochastic growth rates, delivering closed-form expressions for the…
We solve the escape problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact expressions for the survival probability (which ammounts to solving the complete escape problem) as well as for the mean exit time. We also average the…
We consider a large market model of defaultable assets in which the asset price processes are modelled as Heston-type stochastic volatility models with default upon hitting a lower boundary. We assume that both the asset prices and their…
Using microscopic price models based on Hawkes processes, it has been shown that under some no-arbitrage condition, the high degree of endogeneity of markets together with the phenomenon of metaorders splitting generate rough Heston-type…
We consider call option prices in diffusion models close to expiry, in an asymptotic regime ("moderately out of the money") that interpolates between the well-studied cases of at-the-money options and out-of-the-money fixed-strike options.…
Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most…
The Heston model stands out from the class of stochastic volatility (SV) models mainly for two reasons. Firstly, the process for the volatility is non-negative and mean-reverting, which is what we observe in the markets. Secondly, there…
A statistical physics model for the time evolutions of stock portfolios is proposed. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins. The Hamiltonian of the system is introduced and is…
In this paper, a pricing formula for volatility swaps is delivered when the underlying asset follows the stochastic volatility model with jumps and stochastic intensity. By using Feynman-Kac theorem, a partial integral differential equation…
What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people's behavior? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, we approach these topics by exploring…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
We derive a semi-analytical pricing formula for European VIX call options under the Heston-Hawkes stochastic volatility model introduced in arXiv:2210.15343. This arbitrage-free model incorporates the volatility clustering feature by adding…
This paper continues a series of studies devoted to analysis of the bivariate probability distribution P(x,y) of two consecutive price increments x (push) and y (response) at intraday timescales for a group of stocks. Besides the asymmetry…
This paper presents a methodology to introduce time-dependent parameters for a wide family of models preserving their analytic tractability. This family includes hybrid models with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest-rates, jumps and…