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We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-04 Hado van Hasselt

In nonparametric statistics, rate-optimal estimators typically balance bias and stochastic error. The recent work on overparametrization raises the question whether rate-optimal estimators exist that do not obey this trade-off. In this work…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Alexis Derumigny , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

In a completely randomized experiment, the variances of treatment effect estimators in the finite population are usually not identifiable and hence not estimable. Although some estimable bounds of the variances have been established in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Ruoyu Wang , Qihua Wang , Wang Miao , Xiaohua Zhou

Consider the problem of estimating a multivariate normal mean with a known variance matrix, which is not necessarily proportional to the identity matrix. The coordinates are shrunk directly in proportion to their variances in Efron and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-29 Zhiqiang Tan

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-11 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-09 E. Hashorva

Towards understanding the fundamental limits of estimation from data of varied quality, we study the problem of estimating a mean parameter from heteroskedastic Gaussian observations where the variances are unknown and may vary arbitrarily…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Yanjun Han , Abhishek Shetty , Jacob Shkrob

A powerful robust mean estimator introduced by Catoni (2012) allows for mean estimation of heavy-tailed data while achieving the performance characteristics of classical mean estimator for sub-Gaussian data. While Catoni's framework has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-16 Zhijun Cai , Xiang Li , Lihu Xu

The topics dicussed in this paper take their origin inthe estimation of the Gram matrix of a random vector from a sample made of n independent copies. They comprise the estimation of the covariance matrix and the study of least squares…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-17 Olivier Catoni

Determining the strength of non-linear statistical dependencies between two variables is a crucial matter in many research fields. The established measure for quantifying such relations is the mutual information. However, estimating mutual…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-07-24 Damián G. Hernández , Inés Samengo

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Bikramjit Das

We introduce a new measure of robustness for statistical estimators, which we call \emph{empirical sensitivity}. An estimator $\hat \theta$ has bounded empirical sensitivity if, with high probability over a dataset $X = (X_1, \dots, X_n)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Valentio Iverson , Gautam Kamath , Argyris Mouzakis , Adam Smith

Estimating the mean of a random vector from i.i.d. data has received considerable attention, and the optimal accuracy one may achieve with a given confidence is fairly well understood by now. When the data take values in more general metric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Daniel Bartl , Gabor Lugosi , Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira , Zoraida F. Rico

This paper investigates pooling strategies for tail index and extreme quantile estimation from heavy-tailed data. To fully exploit the information contained in several samples, we present general weighted pooled Hill estimators of the tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-08 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

Bias reduction in tail estimation has received considerable interest in extreme value analysis. Estimation methods that minimize the bias while keeping the mean squared error (MSE) under control, are especially useful when applying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-21 Gaonyalelwe Maribe , Andréhette Verster , Jan Beirlant

The goal of this note is to present a modification of the popular median of means estimator that achieves sub-Gaussian deviation bounds with nearly optimal constants under minimal assumptions on the underlying distribution. We build on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-31 Stanislav Minsker

We introduce a modified version of the excess risk, which can be used to obtain tighter, fast-rate PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds. This modified excess risk leverages information about the relative hardness of data examples to reduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-25 Felix Biggs , Benjamin Guedj

We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Chen Zhou

The paper suggests a simple method of deriving minimax lower bounds to the accuracy of statistical inference on heavy tails. A well-known result by Hall and Welsh (Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 1079-1084) states that if $\hat{\alpha}_n$ is an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-14 S. Y. Novak

We present simple differentially private estimators for the mean and covariance of multivariate sub-Gaussian data that are accurate at small sample sizes. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms both theoretically and empirically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Sourav Biswas , Yihe Dong , Gautam Kamath , Jonathan Ullman