Related papers: Weak limits for exploratory plots in the analysis …

As well known, for a supercritical Galton-Watson process $Z_n$ whose offspring distribution has mean $m>1$, the ratio $W_n:=Z_n/m^n$ has a.s. limit, say $W$. We study tail behaviour of the distributions of $W_n$ and $W$ in the case where…

We study the tail behavior of the distribution of the sum of asymptotically independent risks whose marginal distributions belong to the maximal domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. We impose conditions on the distribution of…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

The task of estimation of the tails of probability distributions having small samples seems to be still opened and almost unsolvable. The paper tries to make a step in filling this gap. In 2017 Jordanova et al. introduce six new…

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size…

Let $\{X_n,n\ge1\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, taking non-negative integer values, and call $X_n$ a $\delta$-record if $X_n>\max\{X_1,...,X_{n-1}\}+\delta$, where $\delta$ is an integer…

Non-standard distributional approximations have received considerable attention in recent years. They often provide more accurate approximations in small samples, and theoretical improvements in some cases. This paper shows that the…

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an…

The univariate quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is a well-known graphical tool for examining whether two data sets are generated from the same distribution or not. It is also used to determine how well a specified probability distribution fits…

We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…

In this paper, we propose an new the CUSUM sequential test (control chart, stopping time) with the observation-adjusted control limits (CUSUM-OAL) for monitoring quickly and adaptively the change in distribution of a sequential…

Let $\alpha_n(\cdot)=P\bigl(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\bigr)$ be the predictive distributions of a sequence $(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$ of $p$-dimensional random vectors. Suppose $$\alpha_n= \mathcal{N} _p (M_n,Q_n)$$ where…

We use point processes theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of all upper order statistics for observations collected at renewal times. As a corollary, we obtain limiting theorems for corresponding extremal processes.

In previous papers, we studied the asymptotic behaviour of $S_N(A,X)=(2N+1)^{-d/2}\sum_{n \in A_N} X_n,$ where $X$ is a centered, stationary and weakly dependent random field, and $A_N=A \cap [-N,N]^d$, $A \subset \mathbb{Z}^d$. This leads…

This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify the directional dependence of extreme events between two variables. The proposed approach is designed to capture asymmetric tail dependence by studying conditional tail expectations of…

In several different fields, there is interest in analyzing the upper or lower tail quantile of the underlying distribution rather than mean or center quantile. However, the investigation of the tail quantile is difficult because of data…

Consider a family of random walks $S_n^{(a)}=X_1^{(a)}+\cdots+X_n^{(a)}$ with negative drift $\mathbf E X_1^{(a)}=-a<0$ and finite variance $\mbox{var}(X_1^{(a)})=\sigma^2<\infty$.Let $M^{(a)}=\max_{n\ge 0} S_n^{(a)}$ be the maximums of the…

In this paper we apply techniques from nonstandard analysis to study expansive dynamical systems. Among other results, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for an expansive homeomorphism on a compact metric space to admit…

In this work, we propose a class of importance sampling (IS) estimators for estimating the right tail probability of a sum of continuous random variables based on a change of variables to $L^1$ polar coordinates in which the radial and…

We consider random rectangles in $\mathbb{R}^2$ that are distributed according to a Poisson random measure, i.e., independently and uniformly scattered in the plane. The distributions of the length and the width of the rectangles are…