Related papers: Elicitation of Weibull priors
Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…
In this work, we revisit the estimation of the model parameters of a Weibull distribution based on iid observations, using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method which does not yield closed expressions of the estimators. Among other…
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an…
The widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) has been used as a model selection criterion for Bayesian statistics in recent years. It is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a Bayesian…
Analysis of competing risks data plays an important role in the lifetime data analysis. Recently Feizjavadian and Hashemi (Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, vol. 82, 19-34, 2015) provided a classical inference of a competing risks…
Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…
When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…
We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These situations can arise from the positive definite…
Eliciting a high-dimensional probability distribution from an expert via noisy judgments is notoriously challenging, yet useful for many applications, such as prior elicitation and reward modeling. We introduce a method for eliciting the…
Recent work [ 14 ] has introduced a method for prior elicitation that utilizes records of expert decisions to infer a prior distribution. While this method provides a promising approach to eliciting expert uncertainty, it has only been…
Prior specification for nonparametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. Realistically, a statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions…
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their natural multivariate generalizations, we give exact formulas…
The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to…
We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…
The beta Weibull distribution was introduced by Famoye et al. (2005) and studied by these authors. However, they do not give explicit expressions for the moments. We now derive explicit closed form expressions for the cumulative…
We study probit regression from a Bayesian perspective and give an alternative form for the posterior distribution when the prior distribution for the regression parameters is the uniform distribution. This new form allows simple Monte…
This article is aimed at the investigation of some properties of the Weibull cumulative exposure model on multiple-step step-stress accelerated life test data. Although the model includes a probabilistic idea of Miner's rule in order to…
This paper develops a Bayesian control chart for the percentiles of the Weibull distribution, when both its in-control and out-of-control parameters are unknown. The Bayesian approach enhances parameter estimates for small sample sizes that…
In this paper, we introduce a new four-parameter generalization of the exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution, called the exponentiated Weibull-logarithmic (EWL) distribution, which obtained by compounding EW and logarithmic distributions.…
Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…