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The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

We justify and discuss expressions for joint lower and upper expectations in imprecise probability trees, in terms of the sub- and supermartingales that can be associated with such trees. These imprecise probability trees can be seen as…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-19 Gert de Cooman , Jasper De Bock , Stavros Lopatatzidis

A new object of the probability theory, two-sided chain of events (symbols), is introduced. A theory of multi-steps Markov chains with long-range memory, proposed earlier in Phys. Rev. E 68, 06117 (2003), is developed and used to establish…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 S. S. Apostolov , Z. A. Mayzelis , O. V. Usatenko , V. A. Yampol'skii

This paper presents a novel theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Roy Cerqueti , Emilio De Santis

We develop a general theory of Markov chains realizable as random walks on $\mathscr R$-trivial monoids. It provides explicit and simple formulas for the eigenvalues of the transition matrix, for multiplicities of the eigenvalues via…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2015-03-30 Arvind Ayyer , Anne Schilling , Benjamin Steinberg , Nicolas M. Thiery

A model for statistical ranking is a family of probability distributions whose states are orderings of a fixed finite set of items. We represent the orderings as maximal chains in a graded poset. The most widely used ranking models are…

Commutative Algebra · Mathematics 2011-12-06 Bernd Sturmfels , Volkmar Welker

Graphical models are popular statistical tools which are used to represent dependent or causal complex systems. Statistically equivalent causal or directed graphical models are said to belong to a Markov equivalent class. It is of great…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-30 Yangbo He , Jinzhu Jia , Bin Yu

We summarize our recent findings, where we proposed a framework for learning a Kolmogorov model, for a collection of binary random variables. More specifically, we derive conditions that link outcomes of specific random variables, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-07 Hadi Ghauch , Mikael Skoglund , Hossein Shokri-Ghadikolaei , Carlo Fischione , Ali H. Sayed

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of an ergodic and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to a fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-19 David A. Levin , Yuval Peres

We suggest an approach to obtaining general two-sided bounds on the rate of convergence in terms of special "weighted" norms related to total variation. Some important classes of continuous-time Markov chains are considered:…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-15 A. Zeifman , V. Korolev

In this work we define a stochastic adding machine associated to the Fibonacci base and to a probabilities sequence $\overline{p}=(p_i)_{i\geq 1}$. We obtain a Markov chain whose states are the set of nonnegative integers. We study…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-08-21 Danilo Antonio Caprio

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Ao Cai , Pedro Duarte , Silvius Klein

Iterative load balancing algorithms for indivisible tokens have been studied intensively in the past. Complementing previous worst-case analyses, we study an average-case scenario where the load inputs are drawn from a fixed probability…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2017-03-28 Leran Cai , Thomas Sauerwald

We produce the first example of bounding total variation distance to stationarity and estimating mixing times via orthogonal polynomials diagonalization of discrete reversible Markov chains, the Karlin-McGregor approach.

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-16 Yevgeniy Kovchegov

The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Anja Janßen , Johan Segers

We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Natan T'Joens , Thomas Krak , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-01 D. O. Kalikaeva

We study an irreducible Markov chain on the category of finite abelian $p$-groups, whose stationary measure is the Cohen-Lenstra distribution. This Markov chain arises when one studies the cokernel of a random matrix $M$, after conditioning…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-14 Nikita Lvov

This paper is concerned with the topological invariant of a graph given by the maximum degree of a Markov basis element for the corresponding graph model for binary contingency tables. We describe a degree four Markov basis for the model…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Mike Develin , Seth Sullivant
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