Related papers: Prediction
Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…
Critical transitions, or large changes in the state of a system after a small change in the system's external conditions or parameters, commonly occur in a wide variety of disciplines, from the biological and social sciences to physics.…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…
The fluctuations in nonequilibrium systems are under intense theoretical and experimental investigation. Topical ``fluctuation relations'' describe symmetries of the statistical properties of certain observables, in a variety of models and…
The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…
Complex systems are characterized by a huge number of degrees of freedom often interacting in a non-linear manner. In many cases macroscopic states, however, can be characterized by a small number of order parameters that obey stochastic…
Bursty dynamics characterizes systems that evolve through short active periods of several events, which are separated by long periods of inactivity. Systems with such temporal heterogeneities are not only found in nature but also include…
We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…
Stochastic phenomena in which the noise amplitude is proportional to the fluctuating variable itself, usually called {\it multiplicative noise}, appear ubiquitously in physics, biology, economy and social sciences. The properties of…
Sensitivity to initial conditions is usually associated with chaotic dynamics and strange attractors. However, even systems with (quasi)periodic dynamics can exhibit it. In this context we report on the fractal properties of the isochrons…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
Epilepsy is a neurological disorder arising from anomalies of the electrical activity in the brain, affecting about 0.5--0.8\% of the world population. Several studies investigated the relationship between seizures and brainwave…
We report on self-induced switchings between multiple distinct space--time patterns in the dynamics of a spatially extended excitable system. These switchings between low-amplitude oscillations, nonlinear waves, and extreme events strongly…
Reading is a process that unfolds across space and time, alternating between fixations where a reader focuses on a specific point in space, and saccades where a reader rapidly shifts their focus to a new point. An ansatz of…
In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…
The purpose of this contribution is to summarize and discuss recent advances regarding the onset of turbulence in shear flows. The absence of a clear cut instability mechanism, the spatio-temporal intermittent character and extremely long…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…
The approach of causality based on physical laws and systems is revisited. The issue of "levels", the relevance to epidemiology and the definition of effects are particularly developed. Moreover it is argued that this approach that we call…