Related papers: Prediction
The timing of human labor is among the most critical determinants of neonatal survival, yet the mechanisms that govern the transition from uterine quiescence to coordinated contractions remain elusive. Here we present a dynamical-systems…
In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…
The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…
Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…
Many geophysical and astrophysical phenomena are driven by turbulent fluid dynamics, containing behaviors separated by tens of orders of magnitude in scale. While direct simulations have made large strides toward understanding geophysical…
In this review article, we discuss connections between the physics of disordered systems, phase transitions in inference problems, and computational hardness. We introduce two models representing the behavior of glassy systems, the spiked…
Prior research has shown that autocorrelation and variance in voltage measurements tend to increase as power systems approach instability. This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which these statistical indicators provide reliable…
We address the reachability problem for continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems. Our objective is to present a unified framework that characterizes the reachable set of a dynamic system in the presence of both stochastic disturbances and…
Catastrophic events, though rare, do occur and when they occur, they have devastating effects. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to understand the complexity of the underlying dynamics and signatures of catastrophic events, such as…
In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…
In this paper we consider a diffusion process obtained as a small random perturbation of a dynamical system attracted to a stable equilibrium point. The drift and the diffusive perturbation are assumed to evolve slowly in time. We describe…
We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…
The effect of a stochastic displacement field on a statistically independent point process is analyzed. Stochastic displacement fields can be divided into two large classes: spatially correlated and uncorrelated. For both cases exact…
A wide variety of complex systems exhibit large fluctuations both in space and time that often can be attributed to the presence of some kind of critical phenomena. Under such critical scenario it is well known that the properties of the…
Complex systems performing spiking dynamics are widespread in Nature. They cover from earthquakes, to neurons, variable stars, social networks, or stock markets. Understanding and characterizing their dynamics is relevant in order to detect…
The mechanisms of psychotic symptoms like hallucinations and delusions are often investigated in fully-formed illness, well after symptoms emerge. These investigations have yielded key insights, but are not well-positioned to reveal the…
In this article we discuss several aspects of the stochastic dynamics of spin models. The paper has two independent parts. Firstly, we explore a few properties of the multi-point correlations and responses of generic systems evolving in…
The paper represents the VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation as the earthquake's true precursor. It is shown that this parameter is capable of describing the fault formative process in the focal area. Besides, VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation…