Related papers: Adaptive estimation of vector autoregressive model…
Maximum likelihood estimation of large Markov-switching vector autoregressions (MS-VARs) can be challenging or infeasible due to parameter proliferation. To accommodate situations where dimensionality may be of comparable order to or…
Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling approach for image generation proposes autoregressive processing across hierarchical scales, decoding multiple tokens per scale in parallel. This method achieves high-quality generation while…
Heavy-tailed high-dimensional data are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and pose great challenges to modern statistical analysis. A natural procedure to address this problem is to use penalized quantile regression with…
We develop an LM test for Granger causality in high-dimensional VAR models based on penalized least squares estimations. To obtain a test retaining the appropriate size after the variable selection done by the lasso, we propose a…
We study the problem of inferring a sparse vector from random linear combinations of its components. We propose the Accelerated Orthogonal Least-Squares (AOLS) algorithm that improves performance of the well-known Orthogonal Least-Squares…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
Consider the case that we observe $n$ independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable with a probability distribution known to be an element of a specified statistical model. We are interested in estimating an infinite…
Estimation and inference in statistics pose significant challenges when data are collected adaptively. Even in linear models, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator may fail to exhibit asymptotic normality for single coordinate…
Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…
Least squares linear regression is one of the oldest and widely used data analysis tools. Although the theoretical analysis of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator is as old, several fundamental questions are yet to be answered.…
Many theoretical results for the lasso require the samples to be iid. Recent work has provided guarantees for the lasso assuming that the time series is generated by a sparse Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model with Gaussian innovations.…
Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…
We develop misspecification tests for building additive time-varying (ATV-)GARCH models. In the model, the volatility equation of the GARCH model is augmented by a deterministic time-varying intercept modeled as a linear combination of…
This paper establishes non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the prediction error and estimation accuracy of the LASSO in stationary vector autoregressive models. These inequalities are used to establish consistency of the LASSO even when…
We investigate the time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) process. It is shown that it can be used to describe the slow decay of the sample autocorrelations of the squared returns often observed in financial time series, which warrants the further…
High dimensional Vector Autoregressions (VAR) have received a lot of interest recently due to novel applications in health, engineering, finance and the social sciences. Three issues arise when analyzing VAR's: (a) The high dimensional…
In order to sample marginalized and/or hard-to-reach populations, respondent-driven sampling (RDS) and similar techniques reach their participants via peer referral. Under a Markov model for RDS, previous research has shown that if the…
Causal discovery from multivariate time series is challenging when causal effects may occur both across time and within the same sampling interval. This issue is especially important in applications such as neuroscience, where the sampling…
Variable selection in linear models plays a pivotal role in modern statistics. Hard-thresholding methods such as $l_0$ regularization are theoretically ideal but computationally infeasible. In this paper, we propose a new approach, called…
Our paper discovers a new trade-off of using regression adjustments (RAs) in causal inference under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). On one hand, RAs can improve the efficiency of causal estimators by incorporating information from…