Related papers: Adaptive estimation of vector autoregressive model…
Sequential data collection has emerged as a widely adopted technique for enhancing the efficiency of data gathering processes. Despite its advantages, such data collection mechanism often introduces complexities to the statistical inference…
We study an $\ell_{1}$-regularized generalized least-squares (GLS) estimator for high-dimensional regressions with autocorrelated errors. Specifically, we consider the case where errors are assumed to follow an autoregressive process,…
Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human…
We investigate multiple testing and variable selection using the Least Angle Regression (LARS) algorithm in high dimensions under the assumption of Gaussian noise. LARS is known to produce a piecewise affine solution path with change points…
In this paper we consider estimating the system parameters and designing stable observer for unknown noisy linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. We propose a Support Vector Regression (SVR) based estimator to provide adjustable asymmetric…
Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…
In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…
A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is commonly used to model multivariate time series, and there are many penalized methods to handle high dimensionality. However in terms of spatio-temporal data, most methods do not take the spatial and…
This paper introduces and analyzes a framework that accommodates general heterogeneity in regression modeling. It demonstrates that regression models with fixed or time-varying parameters can be estimated using the OLS and time-varying OLS…
Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences…
Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…
Varying coefficient regression is a flexible technique for modeling data where the coefficients are functions of some effect-modifying parameter, often time or location in a certain domain. While there are a number of methods for variable…
We consider the problem of estimating and inferring treatment effects in randomized experiments. In practice, stratified randomization, or more generally, covariate-adaptive randomization, is routinely used in the design stage to balance…
This paper proposes a novel method (GLS Granger test) to determine causal relationships between time series based on the estimation of the autocovariance matrix and generalized least squares. We show the effectiveness of proposed…
Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
The multiple-subject vector autoregression (multi-VAR) model captures heterogeneous network Granger causality across subjects by decomposing individual sparse VAR transition matrices into commonly shared and subject-unique paths. The model…
The identification of the lag length for vector autoregressive models by mean of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Partial Autoregressive and Correlation Matrices (PAM and PCM hereafter) is studied in the framework of processes with time…
Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear…