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We give a general framework for approximations to combinatorial assemblies, especially suitable to the situation where the number $k$ of components is specified, in addition to the overall size $n$. This involves a Poisson process, which,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-06 Richard Arratia , Stephen DeSalvo

We develop a variational scheme in a field theoretic approach to a stochastic process. While various stochastic processes can be expressed using master equations, in general it is difficult to solve the master equations exactly, and it is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Jun Ohkubo

A composite likelihood is a non-genuine likelihood function that allows to make inference on limited aspects of a model, such as marginal or conditional distributions. Composite likelihoods are not proper likelihoods and need therefore…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-06 Michele Lambardi di San Miniato , Nicola Sartori

In this paper, we develop a framework for the discretization of a mixed formulation of quasi-reversibility solutions to ill-posed problems with respect to Poisson's equations. By carefully choosing test and trial spaces a formulation that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Erik Burman , Mingfei Lu

We consider the problem of bounding large deviations for non-i.i.d. random variables that are allowed to have arbitrary dependencies. Previous works typically assumed a specific dependence structure, namely the existence of independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-06 Christoph H. Lampert , Liva Ralaivola , Alexander Zimin

We study a class of hypothesis testing problems in which, upon observing the realization of an $n$-dimensional Gaussian vector, one has to decide whether the vector was drawn from a standard normal distribution or, alternatively, whether…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-22 Louigi Addario-Berry , Nicolas Broutin , Luc Devroye , Gábor Lugosi

Suppose that local characteristics of several independent compound Poisson and Wiener processes change suddenly and simultaneously at some unobservable disorder time. The problem is to detect the disorder time as quickly as possible after…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-01 Savas Dayanik , H. Vincent Poor , Semih O. Sezer

We investigate how robust approval-based multiwinner voting rules are to small perturbations in the votes. In particular, we consider the extent to which a committee can change after we add/remove/swap one approval, and we consider the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Piotr Faliszewski , Grzegorz Gawron , Bartosz Kusek

We devise variants of classical nonconforming methods for symmetric elliptic problems. These variants differ from the original ones only by transforming discrete test functions into conforming functions before applying the load functional.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Andreas Veeser , Pietro Zanotti

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-15 Danilo Jimenez Rezende , Shakir Mohamed

This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-08 Stan Yip , Yinghong Zou , Ronald Tsz Hin Hung , Ka Fai Cedric Yiu

The factorial moments of the standard Poisson distribution are well known and are simple, but the raw moments are considered to be more complicated (Touchard polynomials). The present note presents a recurrence relation and an explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-04 S. R. Mane

In classic robust optimization, it is assumed that a set of possible parameter realizations, the uncertainty set, is modeled in a previous step and part of the input. As recent work has shown, finding the most suitable uncertainty set is in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-18 André Chassein , Marc Goerigk

Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models are an essential tool for analyzing count data. However, designing efficient algorithms to sample from the posterior distribution of the target parameters remains a challenging task for this class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-10 Aldo Gardini , Fedele Greco , Carlo Trivisano

This study focuses on statistical inference for compound models of the form $X=\xi_1+\ldots+\xi_N$, where $N$ is a random variable denoting the count of summands, which are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Denis Belomestny , Ekaterina Morozova , Vladimir Panov

The problem of individualized prediction can be addressed using variants of conformal prediction, obtaining the intervals to which the actual values of the variables of interest belong. Here we present a method based on detecting the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-12 Fernando Delbianco , Fernando Tohmé

This paper will be devoted to study weighted (deformed) free Poisson random variables from the viewpoint of orthogonal polynomials and statistics of non-crossing partitions. A family of weighted (deformed) free Poisson random variables will…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Nobuhiro Asai , Hiroaki Yoshida

We solve Poisson's equation using new multigrid algorithms that converge rapidly. The novel feature of the 2D and 3D algorithms are the use of extra diagonal grids in the multigrid hierarchy for a much richer and effective communication…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-20 A. J. Roberts

While it's always possible to compute a variational approximation to a posterior distribution, it can be difficult to discover problems with this approximation. We propose two diagnostic algorithms to alleviate this problem. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-15 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

In this article, we provide an extension of the Chen-Stein inequality for Poisson approximation in the total variation distance for sums of independent Bernoulli random variables in two ways. We prove that we can improve the rate of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-26 Pierre-Loïc Méliot , Ashkan Nikeghbali , Gabriele Visentin
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