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The use of sequential Monte Carlo within simulation for path-dependent option pricing is proposed and evaluated. Recently, it was shown that explicit solutions and importance sampling are valuable for efficient simulation of spot price and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-11-13 Michael A. Kouritzin , Anne MacKay

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-24 Tin D. Nguyen , Brian L. Trippe , Tamara Broderick

We consider a simple approach to solving assortment optimization under the random utility maximization model. The approach uses Monte-Carlo simulation to construct a ranking-based choice model that serves as a proxy for the true choice…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Hassaan Khalid , Bradley Sturt

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

The potential effects of conservation actions on threatened species can be predicted using ensemble ecosystem models by forecasting populations with and without intervention. These model ensembles commonly assume stable coexistence of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-22 Sarah A. Vollert , Christopher Drovandi , Matthew P. Adams

Population Monte Carlo simulations in the form commonly referred to as population annealing can serve as a useful meta-algorithm for simulating systems with complex free-energy landscapes. In the present paper we provide an easily…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-17 P. L. Ebert , D. Gessert , W. Janke , M. Weigel

A generalization of the microcanonical ensemble suggests a simple strategy for the simulation of first order phase transitions. At variance with flat-histogram methods, there is no iterative parameters optimization, nor long waits for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-11-26 V. Martin-Mayor

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-12 Christian P. Robert , Victor Elvira , Nick Tawn , Changye Wu

We present a consensus Monte Carlo algorithm that scales existing Bayesian nonparametric models for clustering and feature allocation to big data. The algorithm is valid for any prior on random subsets such as partitions and latent feature…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-26 Yang Ni , Yuan Ji , Peter Mueller

As Gaussian processes are used to answer increasingly complex questions, analytic solutions become scarcer and scarcer. Monte Carlo methods act as a convenient bridge for connecting intractable mathematical expressions with actionable…

In this work, we discuss the implications of a recently obtained equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation on the extension of the available Monte Carlo methods based on the consideration of the Gibbs canonical ensemble to account for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-31 L. Velazquez , S. Curilef

In any valid Monte Carlo sampling that realizes microcanonical property we can collect statistics for a transition matrix in energy. This matrix is used to determine the density of states, from which most of the thermodynamical averages can…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Jian-Sheng Wang

Monte Carlo method is a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or…

Computation · Statistics 2018-09-28 Bochao Jia

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-17 Peter Neal

In this talk, we briefly comment on Sweeny and Gliozzi methods, cluster Monte Carlo method, and recent transition matrix Monte Carlo for Potts models. We mostly concentrate on a new algorithm known as "binary tree summation". Some of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Jian-Sheng Wang

In the context of Bayesian inversion for scientific and engineering modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies are the benchmark due to their flexibility and robustness in dealing with arbitrary posterior probability density…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-07 Han Lu , Mohammad Khalil , Thomas Catanach , Jiefu Chen , Xuqing Wu , Xin Fu , Cosmin Safta , Yueqin Huang

Generalized-ensemble Monte Carlo simulations such as the multicanonical method and similar techniques are among the most efficient approaches for simulations of systems undergoing discontinuous phase transitions or with rugged free- energy…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-02-06 Jonathan Gross , Johannes Zierenberg , Martin Weigel , Wolfhard Janke

A new efficient ensemble prediction strategy is developed for a general turbulent model framework with emphasis on the nonlinear interactions between large and small scale variables. The high computational cost in running large ensemble…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-02-22 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

Using the random-cluster representation of the $q$-state Potts models we consider the pooling of data from cluster-update Monte Carlo simulations for different thermal couplings $K$ and number of states per spin $q$. Proper combination of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Martin Weigel , Wolfhard Janke , Chin-Kun Hu