Related papers: On the inclusion probabilities in some unequal pro…
This paper shows that large nonparametric classes of conditional multivariate densities can be approximated in the Kullback--Leibler distance by different specifications of finite mixtures of normal regressions in which normal means and…
As the popularity of hierarchical point forecast reconciliation methods increases, there is a growing interest in probabilistic forecast reconciliation. Many studies have utilized machine learning or deep learning techniques to implement…
Given two vectors in Euclidean space, how unlikely is it that a random vector has a larger inner product with the shorter vector than with the longer one? When the random vector has independent, identically distributed components, we…
A new method based on the rejection sampling for finding statistical tests is proposed. This method is conceptually intuitive, easy to implement, and applicable for arbitrary dimension. To illustrate its potential applicability, three…
Zeckendorf proved that any integer can be decomposed uniquely as a sum of non-adjacent Fibonacci numbers, $F_n$. Using continued fractions, Lekkerkerker proved the average number of summands of an $m \in [F_n, F_{n+1})$ is essentially…
When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…
One of the main concepts in quantum physics is a density matrix, which is a symmetric positive definite matrix of trace one. Finite probability distributions are a special case where the density matrix is restricted to be diagonal. Density…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
Sequential sampling occurs when the entire population is not known in advance and data are obtained one at a time or in groups of units. This manuscript proposes a new algorithm to sequentially select a balanced sample. The algorithm…
The main idea of nested sampling is to substitute the high-dimensional likelihood integral over the parameter space $\Omega$ by an integral over the unit line $[0,1]$ by employing a push-forward with respect to a suitable transformation.…
In this article, we investigate posterior convergence of nonparametric binary and Poisson regression under possible model misspecification, assuming general stochastic process prior with appropriate properties. Our model setup and objective…
Preferential sampling has attracted considerable attention in geostatistics since the pioneering work of Diggle et al. (2010). A variety of likelihood-based approaches have been developed to correct estimation bias by explicitly modelling…
For fixed size sampling designs with high entropy it is well known that the variance of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator can be approximated by the H\'ajek formula. The interest of this asymptotic variance approximation is that it only…
We propose a decomposition framework for the parallel optimization of the sum of a differentiable (possibly nonconvex) function and a (block) separable nonsmooth, convex one. The latter term is usually employed to enforce structure in the…
When approximating the joint distribution of the component counts of a decomposable combinatorial structure that is `almost' in the logarithmic class, but nonetheless has irregular structure, it is useful to be able first to establish that…
We study density estimation in Kullback-Leibler divergence: given an i.i.d. sample from an unknown density $p^\star$, the goal is to construct an estimator $\widehat{p}$ such that $\mathrm{KL}(p^\star,\widehat{p})$ is small with high…
A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…
We present Lilac, a separation logic for reasoning about probabilistic programs where separating conjunction captures probabilistic independence. Inspired by an analogy with mutable state where sampling corresponds to dynamic allocation, we…
One of the central problems in the classification of individual test sequences (e.g. genetic analysis), is that of checking for the similarity of sample test sequences as compared with a set of much longer training sequences. This is done…
Given two measurable spaces $H$ and $D$ with countably generated $\sigma$-algebras, a perfect prior probability measure $P_H$ on $H$ and a sampling distribution $S: H \rightarrow D$, there is a corresponding inference map $I: D \rightarrow…