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The goal of importance sampling is to estimate the expected value of a given function with respect to a probability measure $\nu$ using a random sample of size $n$ drawn from a different probability measure $\mu$. If the two measures $\mu$…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-22 Sourav Chatterjee , Persi Diaconis

We characterize Martin-L\"of randomness and Schnorr randomness in terms of the merging of opinions, along the lines of the Blackwell-Dubins Theorem. After setting up a general framework for defining notions of merging randomness, we focus…

Logic · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Simon M. Huttegger , Sean Walsh , Francesca Zaffora Blando

We consider the solvability of the Fokker-Planck equation with both time-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients by means of the similarity method. By the introduction of the similarity variable, the Fokker-Planck equation is reduced to…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2016-12-28 C. -L. Ho

We elaborate on a deconvolution method, used to estimate the empirical distribution of unknown parameters, as suggested recently by Efron (2013). It is applied to estimating the empirical distribution of the 'sampling probabilities' of m…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-20 Eitan Greenshtein , Theodor Itskov

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian posterior distributions under independent and identically distributed ($i.i.d.$) misspecified models. More specifically, we study the concentration of the posterior distribution on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-04 R. V. Ramamoorthi , Karthik Sriram , Ryan Martin

Yager[5] proposed a transformation for opposing(negating) the occurence of an event that is not certain using the idea that one can oppose the occurence of any uncertain event by allocating its probability among the other outcomes in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-01 Amit Srivastava

This work studies the variation in Kullback-Leibler divergence between random draws from some popular nonparametric processes and their baseline measure. In particular we focus on the Dirichlet process, the P\'olya tree and the frequentist…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-25 James Watson , Luis Nieto-Barajas , Chris Holmes

We study two adaptive importance sampling schemes for estimating the probability of a rare event in the high-dimensional regime $d \to \infty$ with $d$ the dimension. The first scheme is the prominent cross-entropy (CE) method, and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-26 Jason Beh , Yonatan Shadmi , Florian Simatos

We study the problem of estimating a distribution over a finite alphabet from an i.i.d. sample, with accuracy measured in relative entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence). While optimal bounds on the expected risk are known, high-probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Jaouad Mourtada

We rigorously quantify the improvement in the sample complexity of variational divergence estimations for group-invariant distributions. In the cases of the Wasserstein-1 metric and the Lipschitz-regularized $\alpha$-divergences, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Ziyu Chen , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet , Wei Zhu

In this work, a novel sequential Monte Carlo filter is introduced which aims at efficient sampling of high-dimensional state spaces with a limited number of particles. Particles are pushed forward from the prior to the posterior density…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Manuel Pulido , Peter Jan vanLeeuwen

It was recently shown in [4] that, for $L_2$-approximation of functions from a Hilbert space, function values are almost as powerful as arbitrary linear information, if the approximation numbers are square-summable. That is, we showed that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-15 Mario Ullrich

In this paper, we study the summability properties of double sequences of real constants which map sequences of random variables to sequences of random variables that are defined on the same probability sample space. We show that a regular…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-31 Jinlu Li , Robert Mendris

We develop large sample theory for merged data from multiple sources. Main statistical issues treated in this paper are (1) the same unit potentially appears in multiple datasets from overlapping data sources, (2) duplicated items are not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-22 Takumi Saegusa

Composite likelihoods are a class of alternatives to the full likelihood which are widely used in many situations in which the likelihood itself is intractable. A composite likelihood may be computed without the need to specify the full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-08 Helen Ogden

The algorithmic theory of randomness is well developed when the underlying space is the set of finite or infinite sequences and the underlying probability distribution is the uniform distribution or a computable distribution. These…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2016-08-31 Peter Gacs

It is shown that at least 50% of the probability mass of a sum of independent Rademacher random variables is within one standard deviation from its mean. This lower bound is sharp, it is much better than for instance the bound that can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-22 Martien C. A. van Zuijlen

We consider the problem of sequential sampling from a finite number of independent statistical populations to maximize the expected infinite horizon average outcome per period, under a constraint that the expected average sampling cost does…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-01-20 Apostolos Burnetas , Odysseas Kanavetas

Let $A$ be an $n \times n$ random matrix with independent identically distributed non-constant subgaussian entries. Then for any $k \le c \sqrt{n}$, \[ \text{rank}(A) \ge n-k \] with probability at least $1-\exp(-c'kn)$.

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-19 M. Rudelson

When one deals with data drawn from continuous variables, a histogram is often inadequate to display their probability density. It deals inefficiently with statistical noise, and binsizes are free parameters. In contrast to that, the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 Bernd A. Berg , Robert C. Harris
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