Related papers: Record-breaking temperatures reveal a warming clim…
We conduct laboratory experiments on the time evolution of an ice layer cooled from below and subjected to a turbulent shear flow of warm water from above. Our study is motivated by observations of warm water intrusion into the ocean cavity…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…
We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6 land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadratic background. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 shows evidence…
In a recent article by Scafetta, 2010, the author investigates whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. In particular, the author note that several global surface temperature records,…
The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized…
Acknowledging a considerable literature on modeling daily temperature data, we propose a multi-level spatio-temporal model which introduces several innovations in order to explain the daily maximum temperature in the summer period over 60…
This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural…
The effect of solar magnetic activity on the yearly mean average temperature is extracted from the historical record for much of North America. The level of solar activity is derived from the international sunspot number by the renormalized…
Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has…
The recent widespread thaw of permafrost has led to observations of explosive gas emissions, which expel ice and soil debris and leave behind large craters. This phenomenon appears to be caused by a buildup of pressure from below the…
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…
This paper proposes a stochastic approach to model temperature dynamic and study related risk measures. The dynamic of temperatures can be modelled by a mean-reverting process such as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck one. In this study, we estimate…
This paper describes some of the astronomical effects that could be important for understanding the ice ages, historic climate changes and the recent temperature increase. These include changes in the sun's luminosity, periodic changes in…
Using parametric analysis (curve fitting) we find a persistent temperature bump, coincident with World War II (WW2), in eight independent time series, four land- and four ocean-based. We fit the data with a Gaussian on a quadratic…
Using an intermediate complexity climate model (Planet Simulator), we investigate the so-called Snowball Earth transition. For certain values of the solar constant, the climate system allows two different stable states: one of them is the…
We consider the problem of detecting gradual changes in the sequence of mean functions from a not necessarily stationary functional time series. Our approach is based on the maximum deviation (calculated over a given time interval) between…
Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forecasts of prevailing weather regimes have proven skillful and…
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…
The temporal and spatial trends of 16 climate extreme indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the period 1987-2016 at 28 stations distributed across Israel and Palestine in the Levant region were annually and…
While one can unequivocally identify past climate transitions, we lack comprehensive knowledge about their underlying mechanisms and timescales. Our study employs a dimensional analysis of benthic stable isotope records to uncover, across…