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We present an R package bssm for Bayesian non-linear/non-Gaussian state space modelling. Unlike the existing packages, bssm allows for easy-to-use approximate inference based on Gaussian approximations such as the Laplace approximation and…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-13 Jouni Helske , Matti Vihola

Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) is a popular technique for data assimilation, with far ranging applications. However, the vanilla EnKF framework is not well-defined when perturbations are nonlinear. We study two non-linear extensions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-24 Zachariah Malik , Romit Maulik

Block-Oriented Nonlinear (BONL) models, particularly Wiener models, are widely used for their computational efficiency and practicality in modeling nonlinear behaviors in physical systems. Filtering and smoothing methods for Wiener systems,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-14 Angel L. Cedeño , Rodrigo A. González , Juan C. Agüero

In this paper, we propose RFF-GP-HSMM, a fast unsupervised time-series segmentation method that incorporates random Fourier features (RFF) to address the high computational cost of the Gaussian process hidden semi-Markov model (GP-HSMM).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Issei Saito , Masatoshi Nagano , Tomoaki Nakamura , Daichi Mochihashi , Koki Mimura

Ensemble data assimilation methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are a key component of probabilistic weather forecasting. They represent the uncertainty in the initial conditions by an ensemble which incorporates information…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-17 Sylvain Robert , Daniel Leuenberger , Hans R. Künsch

Fueled by applications in sensor networks, these years have witnessed a surge of interest in distributed estimation and filtering. A new approach is hereby proposed for the Distributed Kalman Filter (DKF) by integrating a local covariance…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-03-17 Ye Yuan , Ling Shi , Jun Liu , Zhiyong Chen , Hai-Tao Zhang , Jorge Goncalves

State-space models provide an important body of techniques for analyzing time-series, but their use requires estimating unobserved states. The optimal estimate of the state is its conditional expectation given the observation histories, and…

We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-02 Joonha Park , Edward L. Ionides

In this paper, we propose and develop a methodology for nonlinear systems health monitoring by modeling the damage and degradation mechanism dynamics as "slow" states that are augmented with the system "fast" dynamical states. This…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-17 Najmeh Daroogheh , Nader Meskin , Khashayar Khorasani

In the geophysical joint inversion, the gradient and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling-based methods are widely used owing to their fast convergences or global optimality. However, these methods either require the…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-08-04 Longlong Wang , Yun Chen , Youshan Liu , Nanqiao Du , Wei Li , Junliu Suwen

In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-22 Anastasios Tsiamis , George J. Pappas

State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Bickel , Yaacov Ritov , Tobias Rydén

This paper deals with the state estimation of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems with an emphasis on the numerical solution to the Bayesian recursive relations. In particular, this paper builds upon the Lagrangian grid-based filter (GbF)…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-20 Jindřich Duník , Jan Krejčí , Jakub Matoušek , Marek Brandner , Yeongkwon Choe

Gaussian process regression is a machine learning approach which has been shown its power for estimation of unknown functions. However, Gaussian processes suffer from high computational complexity, as in a basic form they scale cubically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-10 Danil Kuzin , Le Yang , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

This paper proposes a novel vehicle sideslip angle estimator, which uses the physical knowledge from an Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) based on a non-linear single-track vehicle model to enhance the estimation accuracy of a Convolutional…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-10 Alberto Bertipaglia , Mohsen Alirezaei , Riender Happee , Barys Shyrokau

This paper focuses on the state estimation problem in distributed sensor networks, where intermittent packet dropouts, corrupted observations, and unknown noise covariances coexist. To tackle this challenge, we formulate the joint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-06 Peng Sun , Ruoyu Wang , Xue Luo

The filtering distribution in hidden Markov models evolves according to the law of a mean-field model in state-observation space. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approximates this mean-field model with an ensemble of interacting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-25 Eviatar Bach , Ricardo Baptista , Edoardo Calvello , Bohan Chen , Andrew Stuart

Gaussian filters have applications in a variety of areas in computer science, from computer vision to speech recognition. The collapsing sum is a matrix operator that was recently introduced to study Gaussian filters combinatorially. In…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-12-30 Travis Dillon

Bayesian filtering is a cornerstone of state estimation in complex systems such as aerospace systems, yet exact solutions are available only for linear Gaussian models. In practice,nonlinear systems are handled through tractable…

Smoothing algorithms for state-space models, i.e., fixed-interval smoothing, fixed-lag smoothing, and two-filter formula for smoothing, are examined using real examples. For linear and Gaussian state-space models, it is observed that…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-10 G. Kitagawa