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We propose a new method to obtain kinetic properties of infrequent events from molecular dynamics simulation. The procedure employs a recently introduced variational approach [Valsson and Parrinello, Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 090601 (2014)] to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-08-19 James McCarty , Omar Valsson , Pratyush Tiwary , Michele Parrinello

In this paper we present a new approach to proving some exponential inequalities involving the sinc function. Power series expansions are used to generate new polynomial inequalities that are sufficient to prove the given exponential…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2019-10-15 T. Lutovac , B. Malesevic , M. Rasajski

Measuring model risk is required by regulators on financial and insurance markets. We separate model risk into parameter estimation risk and model specification risk, and we propose expected shortfall type model risk measures applied to…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-29 Emese Lazar , Shuyuan Qi , Radu Tunaru

This paper introduces a novel methodology for index return forecasting, blending highly correlated stock prices, advanced deep learning techniques, and intricate factor integration. Departing from conventional cap-weighted approaches, our…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-06 Tian Tian , Ricky Cooper , Jiahao Deng , Qingquan Zhang

Algorithmic lending has transformed the consumer credit landscape, with complex machine learning models now commonly used to make or assist underwriting decisions. To comply with fair lending laws, these algorithms typically exclude legally…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-25 Madison Coots , Robert Bartlett , Julian Nyarko , Sharad Goel

The aim of our work is to propose a natural framework to account for all the empirically known properties of the multivariate distribution of stock returns. We define and study a "nested factor model", where the linear factors part is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-15 Rémy Chicheportiche , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

This article is a sequel to [A.H.M.P]. In [A.H.M.P], we develop an explicit formula for pricing European options when the underlying stock price follows a non-linear stochastic delay equation with fixed delays in the drift and diffusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Mercedes Arriojas , Yaozhong Hu , Salah-Eldin Mohammed , Gyula Pap

Discrete choice models are commonly used by applied statisticians in numerous fields, such as marketing, economics, finance, and operations research. When agents in discrete choice models are assumed to have differing preferences, exact…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-04 Michael Braun , Jon McAuliffe

Models to price long term loans in the securities lending business are developed. These longer horizon deals can be viewed as contracts with optionality embedded in them. This insight leads to the usage of established methods from…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-29 Ravi Kashyap

We amend and extend the Chiarella model of financial markets to deal with arbitrary long-term value drifts in a consistent way. This allows us to improve upon existing calibration schemes, opening the possibility of calibrating individual…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-11 Jutta G. Kurth , Adam A. Majewski , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Oil is perceived as a good diversification tool for stock markets. To fully understand this potential, we propose a new empirical methodology that combines generalized autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency data and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-11 Krenar Avdulaj , Jozef Barunik

Varying coefficient model is often used in statistical modeling since it is more flexible than the parametric model. However, model detection and variable selection of varying coefficient model are poorly understood in mode regression.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-23 Xuejun Ma , Yue Du , Jingli Wang

In this paper new analytical and numerical approaches to valuating path-dependent options of European type have been developed. The model of stochastic volatility as a basic model has been chosen. For European options we could improve the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-09-24 Yu. A. Kuperin , P. A. Poloskov

This paper considers a variational inequality (VI) problem arising from a game among multiple agents, where each agent aims to minimize its own cost function subject to its constrained set represented as the intersection of a (possibly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-13 Abhishek Chakraborty , Angelia Nedić

The paper discusses capital allocation using the Euler formula and focuses on the risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). Some new results connected to this capital allocation is known. Two examples illustrate that…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-02 Lars Holden

We give three derivations of Polya's approximation for the expected range of a simple random walk in one dimension. This result allows for an estimation of the volatility of a financial instrument from the difference between the high and…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-21 Sami Assaf

We consider the consumption-based asset pricing model, derive a new modified basic pricing equation, and present its successive approximations using the Taylor series expansions of the investor's utility during the averaging time interval.…

General Economics · Economics 2024-01-18 Victor Olkhov

The introduction of CCPs in most derivative transactions will dramatically change the landscape of derivatives pricing, hedging and risk management, and, according to the TABB group, will lead to an overall liquidity impact about 2 USD…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-01-17 Damiano Brigo , Andrea Pallavicini

The so-called pinball loss for estimating conditional quantiles is a well-known tool in both statistics and machine learning. So far, however, only little work has been done to quantify the efficiency of this tool for nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-11 Ingo Steinwart , Andreas Christmann

The rise of algorithmic decision-making has spawned much research on fair machine learning (ML). Financial institutions use ML for building risk scorecards that support a range of credit-related decisions. Yet, the literature on fair ML in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-20 Nikita Kozodoi , Johannes Jacob , Stefan Lessmann