Related papers: Approximate Methods for State-Space Models
We study the nonparametric covariance estimation of a stationary Gaussian field X observed on a regular lattice. In the time series setting, some procedures like AIC are proved to achieve optimal model selection among autoregressive models.…
In this paper we propose a flexible class of multivariate nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models, based on copulas. More precisely, we assume that the observation equation and the state equation are defined by copula families that are…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide powerful probabilistic frameworks for interpolation, forecasting, and smoothing, but have been hampered by computational scaling issues. Here we investigate data sampled on one dimension (e.g., a scalar or…
Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state-space models is computationally challenging. For many spatiotemporal systems, however, prior knowledge about the dependency structure of state variables is available. We leverage this…
Studying the effects of air-pollution on health is a key area in environmental epidemiology. An accurate estimation of air-pollution effects requires spatio-temporally resolved datasets of air-pollution, especially, Fine Particulate Matter…
Gaussian processes are powerful non-parametric probabilistic models for stochastic functions. However, the direct implementation entails a complexity that is computationally intractable when the number of observations is large, especially…
Laplace's method, a family of asymptotic methods used to approximate integrals, is presented as a potential candidate for the tool box of techniques used for knowledge acquisition and probabilistic inference in belief networks with…
Spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are popular and flexible models for non-Gaussian spatial data. They are useful for spatial interpolations as well as for fitting regression models that account for spatial dependence, and are…
Transferring information from observations of a dynamical system to estimate the fixed parameters and unobserved states of a system model can be formulated as the evaluation of a discrete time path integral in model state space. The…
We propose a nonlinear filtering framework for approaching the problems of channel state tracking and spatiotemporal channel gain prediction in mobile wireless sensor networks, in a Bayesian setting. We assume that the wireless channel…
Particle filters are computational techniques for estimating the state of dynamical systems by integrating observational data with model predictions. This work introduces a class of Localized Particle Filters (LPFs) that exploit spatial…
State-space mixed-frequency vector autoregressions are now widely used for nowcasting. Despite their popularity, estimating such models can be computationally intensive, especially for large systems with stochastic volatility. To tackle the…
For complex nonlinear systems, it is challenging to design algorithms that are fast, scalable, and give an accurate approximation of the stability region. This paper proposes a sampling-based approach to address these challenges. By…
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…
Lattice gauge theories (LGTs) provide a powerful framework for studying non-perturbative phenomena in gauge theories. However, conventional approaches such as Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in imaginary time are limited, as they do not allow…
The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) has been recently used to perform uncertainty estimation on the predictions of pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs). However, its widespread application is hindered by significant computational…
Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…
The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method has become a popular approach for computationally efficient approximate Bayesian computation. In particular, by leveraging sparsity in random effect precision matrices, INLA is…
This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…