Related papers: Universal Fluctuations of AEX index

The probability P(alpha, N) that search algorithms for random Satisfiability problems successfully find a solution is studied as a function of the ratio alpha of constraints per variable and the number N of variables. P is shown to be…

Possible parameter values in a random sampling model are shown by definition to have uniform base-rate prior probabilities. This allows a frequentist posterior probability distribution to be calculated for such possible parameter values…

Empirical studies indicate the existence of long range dependence in the volatility of the underlying asset. This feature can be captured by modeling its return and volatility using functions of a stationary fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck…

This paper studies the properties of the probability density function $p_{\alpha,\nu, n}(\mathbf{x})$ of the $n$-variate generalized Linnik distribution whose characteristic function $\varphi_{\alpha,\nu,n}(\boldsymbol{t})$ is given by…

Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the…

Option pricing formulas are derived from a non-Gaussian model of stock returns. Fluctuations are assumed to evolve according to a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation which maximizes the Tsallis nonextensive entropy of index $q$. A generalized…

We compute the full probability distribution of the spectral form factor in the self-dual kicked Ising model by providing an exact lower bound for each moment and verifying numerically that the latter is saturated. We show that at large…

The main aim of this article is to characterize and investigate the three parameter exponentiated exponential Poisson probability distribution ${\rm EEP}(\alpha, \beta, \lambda)$ by giving explicit closed form expressions for its…

We consider approximate pricing formulas for European options based on approximating the logarithmic return's density of the underlying by a linear combination of rescaled Hermite polynomials. The resulting models, that can be seen as…

Maximum likelihood estimation applied to high-frequency data allows us to quantify intermittency in the fluctu- ations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency…

We consider a previously proposed non-extensive statistical mechanics in which the entropy depends only on the probability, this was obtained from a f(\beta) distribution and its corresponding Boltzmann factor. We show that the first term…

We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal…

We introduce the probabilistic symbol for the class of homogeneous diffusions with jumps (in the sense of Jacod/Shiryaev). This concept generalizes the well-known characteristic exponent of a L\'{e}vy process. Using the symbol, we introduce…

Posterior tempering reduces the influence of the likelihood in the calculation of the posterior by raising the likelihood to a fractional power $\alpha$. The resulting power posterior - also known as an $\alpha$-posterior or fractional…

Complex systems comprise a large number of interacting elements, whose dynamics is not always a priori known. In these cases -- in order to uncover their key features -- we have to turn to empirical methods, one of which was recently…

The localized eigenstates of the Harper equation exhibit universal self-similar fluctuations once the exponentially decaying part of a wave function is factorized out. For a fixed quantum state, we show that the whole localized phase is…

We show that the stationary density fluctuations of exclusion processes with long jumps, whose rates are of the form $c^\pm |y-x|^{-(1+\alpha)}$ where $c\pm$ depends on the sign of $y-x$, are given by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process…

We propose a picture of the fluctuations in branching random walks, which leads to predictions for the distribution of a random variable that characterizes the position of the bulk of the particles. We also interpret the $1/\sqrt{t}$…

This paper investigates improved testing inferences under a general multivariate elliptical regression model. The model is very flexible in terms of the specification of the mean vector and the dispersion matrix, and of the choice of the…

The best bounds of the form $B(\alpha,\beta,\gamma,x)=(\alpha+\sqrt{\beta^2+\gamma^2 x^2})/x$ for ratios of modified Bessel functions are characterized: if $\alpha$, $\beta$ and $\gamma$ are chosen in such a way that…