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We investigate how individuals form expectations about population behavior using statistical inference based on observations of their social relations. Misperceptions about others' connectedness and behavior arise from sampling bias…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-27 Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen , Martin Benedikt Busch

People's perceptions about the size of minority groups in social networks can be biased, often showing systematic over- or underestimation. These social perception biases are often attributed to biased cognitive or motivational processes.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-01-13 Eun Lee , Fariba Karimi , Claudia Wagner , Hang-Hyun Jo , Markus Strohmaier , Mirta Galesic

The stochastic processes underlying the growth and stability of biological and psychological systems reveal themselves when far from equilibrium. Far from equilibrium, nonergodicity reigns. Nonergodicity implies that the average outcome for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-03 Madhur Mangalam , Damian G. Kelty-Stephen

Homophily, the tendency of humans to attract each other when sharing similar features, traits, or opinions has been identified as one of the main driving forces behind the formation of structured societies. Here we ask to what extent…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-02-08 Jan Korbel , Simon D. Lindner , Tuan Minh Pham , Rudolf Hanel , Stefan Thurner

The problem of inferring pair-wise and higher-order interactions in complex systems involving large numbers of interacting variables, from observational data, is fundamental to many fields. Known to the statistical physics community as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-01 Sjoerd Viktor Beentjes , Ava Khamseh

Social influence characterizes the change of an individual's stances in a complex social environment towards a topic. Two factors often govern the influence of stances in an online social network: endogenous influences driven by an…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Lynnette Hui Xian Ng , Kathleen Carley

Polarization is a problem in modern society. Understanding how opinions evolve through social interactions is crucial for addressing conditions that lead to polarization, consensus, or opinion diversity. Classical opinion dynamics models…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-03-06 Brian Mintz , Daniel Simonson , Dominik Wodarz , Feng Fu , Natalia L. Komarova

It is common to assess the "memory strength" of a stationary process looking at how fast the normalized log-determinant of its covariance submatrices (i.e., entropy rate) decreases. In this work, we propose an alternative characterization…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-24 Anatoly Khina , Arie Yeredor , Ram Zamir

Collective decision-making is a process by which a group of individuals determines a shared outcome that shapes societal dynamics; from innovation diffusion to organizational choices. A common approach to model these processes is using…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-03 Maciej Doniec , Pratik Mullick , Parongama Sen , Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron

We consider statistics on permutations chosen uniformly at random from fixed parabolic double cosets of the symmetric group. We show that the distribution of fixed points is asymptotically Poisson and establish central limit theorems for…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-20 J. E. Paguyo

Statistical models that possess symmetry arise in diverse settings such as random fields associated to geophysical phenomena, exchangeable processes in Bayesian statistics, and cyclostationary processes in engineering. We formalize the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-01 Parikshit Shah , Venkat Chandrasekaran

We introduce and study the problem of detecting whether an agent is updating their prior beliefs given new evidence in an optimal way that is Bayesian, or whether they are biased towards their own prior. In our model, biased agents form…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yiling Chen , Tao Lin , Ariel D. Procaccia , Aaditya Ramdas , Itai Shapira

The problem of clustering is considered, for the case when each data point is a sample generated by a stationary ergodic process. We propose a very natural asymptotic notion of consistency, and show that simple consistent algorithms exist,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-05-01 Daniil Ryabko

The problem of clustering is considered, for the case when each data point is a sample generated by a stationary ergodic process. We propose a very natural asymptotic notion of consistency, and show that simple consistent algorithms exist,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-05-31 Daniil Ryabko

Exposure bias refers to the train-test discrepancy that seemingly arises when an autoregressive generative model uses only ground-truth contexts at training time but generated ones at test time. We separate the contributions of the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-11 Florian Schmidt

The increasing availability of time --and space-- resolved data describing human activities and interactions gives insights into both static and dynamic properties of human behavior. In practice, nevertheless, real-world datasets can often…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-11-27 Nicolas Tremblay , Alain Barrat , Cary Forest , Mark Nornberg , Jean-François Pinton , Pierre Borgnat

Inverse problems, where in broad sense the task is to learn from the noisy response about some unknown function, usually represented as the argument of some known functional form, has received wide attention in the general scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-24 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Minimizing social bias strengthens societal bonds, promoting shared understanding and better decision-making. We revisit the definition of bias by discovering new bias types (e.g., societal status) in dynamic environments and describe them…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Jia Xu , Mona Diab

A commonly observed pattern in machine learning models is an underprediction of the target feature, with the model's predicted target rate for members of a given category typically being lower than the actual target rate for members of that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Owen O'Neill , Fintan Costello

The asymptotic solution to the problem of comparing the means of two heteroscedastic populations, based on two random samples from the populations, hinges on the pivot underpinning the construction of the confidence interval and the test…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-30 Rajeshwari Majumdar , Suman Majumdar